Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected New Mexico 41.1, UTEP 14.7 at University Stadium (NM) in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: New Mexico wins about 96% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 26.3 points and 55.8 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
UTEP is 1-3, scoring 18.8 and allowing 36.5 points per game (-17.7 per game). New Mexico is 3-1, scoring 39 and allowing 11.5 points per game (+27.5 per game).
New Mexico's middle-of-the-pack defense (44th) should limit UTEP's struggling offense (134th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 17 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: New Mexico's middle-of-the-pack offense (42nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.5 points against an average defense) against UTEP's struggling defense (137th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between New Mexico by 4 and New Mexico by 49 about 80% of the time.
New Mexico gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour New Mexico by about 24.2. The game is on MW+.
Result: UTEP 7, New Mexico 61. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 27.7 points and the total by 12.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UTEP / New Mexico) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | New Mexico -21.75 → New Mexico -23.25 | 51 → 47.75 | +1075 / -2200 |
| DraftKings | New Mexico -21 → New Mexico -23.5 | 53.5 → 47.5 | +1200 / -2400 |
| Bovada | New Mexico -22.5 → New Mexico -23 | 48.5 → 48 | +950 / -2000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | New Mexico win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | New Mexico -26.5 | 55.8 | 96% |
| Market consensus | New Mexico -23.5 | 47.8 | 92% |
| Blended projection | New Mexico -24 | 49.2 | 95% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- New Mexico win probability
- model 96% · market (no-vig) 92% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model New Mexico -26.3 · market New Mexico -23.25 · difference +3.1 pts (New Mexico view)
- Total
- model 55.8 · market 47.75 · difference +8.0
Model margin is 3.1 pts more toward New Mexico than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UTEP 14.7, New Mexico 41.1 | New Mexico 96%right winner | 27.7 | 12.2 |
| New formula | UTEP 12.4, New Mexico 41.1 | New Mexico 97%right winner | 25.3 | 14.5 |
Final: UTEP 7, New Mexico 61. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UTEP vs New Mexico: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | UTEP | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.8#127 | 39.0#27 |
| Points allowed per game | 36.5#134 | 11.5#9 |
| Yards per play | 4.95#126 | 5.53#109 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.23#108 | 4.62#22 |
| Rushing yards per game | 152.0#97 | 224.3#25 |
| Net passing yards per game | 118.8#133 | 133.5#132 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 160.5#90 | 109.0#25 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 218.0#84 | 155.8#24 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75#71 | 0.00#4 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#73 | 2.75#1 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#126 | 3.00#20 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 4.00#136 | 3.00#128 |
| Stat | UTEP | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.10#133 | +0.08#75 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.22#130 | -0.08#20 |
| Success rate | 39.4%#114 | 42.6%#77 |
| Success rate allowed | 50.3%#136 | 35.9%#23 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.5%#118 | 14.1%#50 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.7%#129 | 10.0%#33 |
| Havoc rate | 11.0%#122 | 17.9%#8 |
| Havoc allowed | 19.2%#137 | 13.0%#71 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.46#117 | 4.20#67 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.54#118 | 3.41#41 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#47 | own 44#1 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#126 | own 23#3 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 54.8#137 | 64.8#80 |
| Stat | UTEP | New Mexico |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10#130 | +0.15#31 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.11#120 | -0.01#105 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09#102 | -0.08#26 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.37#133 | -0.07#35 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.0%#126 | 47.9%#40 |
| Passing success rate | 43.3%#69 | 34.1%#125 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.0%#133 | 15.3%#55 |
| Passing-down success rate | 21.7%#131 | 31.7%#68 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 43.8%#137 | 24.2%#26 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 25.5%#138 | 38.5%#97 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 52.1%#135 | 35.8%#56 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 43.9%#130 | 68.2%#54 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.1%#91 | 46.3%#29 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UTEP schedule · New Mexico schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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