Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UTEP 41.3, Texas Southern 11.6 at Sun Bowl in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: UTEP wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 29.6 points and 52.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Texas Southern is 1-1, scoring 28 and allowing 41 points per game (-13 per game). UTEP is 0-1, scoring 0 and allowing 51 points per game (-51 per game).
Texas Southern plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why UTEP's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UTEP by 7 and UTEP by 52 about 80% of the time.
UTEP gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UTEP by about 27.5. The game is on MW+.
Result: Texas Southern 10, UTEP 51. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11.4 points and the total by 8.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Texas Southern / UTEP) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UTEP -25.5 → UTEP -27.25 | 52.75 → 53.5 | +1450 / -4250 |
| Bovada | UTEP -25.5 → UTEP -27 | 53 → 53.5 | +1200 / -4000 |
| DraftKings | UTEP -25.5 → UTEP -27.5 | 52.5 → 53.5 | +1700 / -4500 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UTEP win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UTEP -29.5 | 52.9 | 97% |
| Market consensus | UTEP -27.5 | 53.5 | 94% |
| Blended projection | UTEP -28 | 54.0 | 97% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UTEP win probability
- model 97% · market (no-vig) 94% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model UTEP -29.6 · market UTEP -27.25 · difference +2.4 pts (UTEP view)
- Total
- model 52.9 · market 53.5 · difference -0.6
Model margin is 2.4 pts more toward UTEP than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Texas Southern 11.6, UTEP 41.3 | UTEP 97%right winner | 11.4 | 8.1 |
| New formula | Texas Southern 18.8, UTEP 37.7 | UTEP 87%right winner | 22.1 | 4.5 |
Final: Texas Southern 10, UTEP 51. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Texas Southern vs UTEP: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Texas Southern | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.3 | 23.3#99 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.7 | 30.4#111 |
| Yards per play | 5.42 | 5.29#112 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.02 | 5.36#35 |
| Rushing yards per game | 180.6 | 120.2#125 |
| Net passing yards per game | 165.2 | 224.8#70 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 187.2 | 181.1#92 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 198.4 | 208.8#53 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.80 | 1.67#130 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.10 | 0.75#112 |
| Sacks per game | 0.80 | 2.33#38 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.70 | 2.17#95 |
| Stat | Texas Southern | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.01 | -0.10#125 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | -0.07#31 |
| Success rate | 40.5% | 34.4%#134 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.8% | 40.2%#51 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.7% | 11.4%#101 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.8% | 9.8%#17 |
| Havoc rate | 9.8% | 12.7%#64 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9% | 13.8%#111 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.36 | 3.92#74 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.36 | 3.66#45 |
| Average starting field position | opp 8 | own 29#100 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | own 31#106 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.8 | 65.2#84 |
| Stat | Texas Southern | UTEP |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05 | -0.01#91 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.18#130 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11 | -0.12#13 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | -0.01#61 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.7% | 36.6%#126 |
| Passing success rate | 38.0% | 30.9%#133 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.5% | 22.0%#122 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.6% | 25.1%#122 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.5% | 27.9%#44 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.5% | 32.9%#131 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.1% | 29.7%#4 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 58.9%#84 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 49.2% | 56.8%#47 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas Southern schedule · UTEP schedule · all Week 2 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.