2026 schedule
Texas Southern Tigers
2026 season so far
Texas Southern is 2-5 against the 79th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.9 and allowing 43 points per game (-18.1 per game).
Texas Southern plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Grambling in Week 9. We project Texas Southern 28, Grambling 36 — Texas Southern wins 31% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
11 games- vs
North Carolina Central Eagles
0-1 · SOS #115
Win 42-30
Week 1
Our number· model now
North Carolina Central by 8
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas Southern by 12. 72 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Shell Energy Stadium - at
Prairie View A&M Panthers
1-1 · SOS #68
Loss 14-52
Week 1
Our number· model now
Prairie View A&M by 15
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
Final Prairie View A&M by 38. 66 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPNEWS Panther Stadium - at
UTEP Miners
1-1 · SOS #65
Loss 10-51
Week 2
Our number· model now
UTEP by 13
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
Final UTEP by 41. 61 points. No book line was saved for this game.
MW+ Sun Bowl - at
Alcorn State Braves
3-2 · SOS #137
Loss 40-43
Week 4
Our number· model now
Alcorn State by 15
Total 65
Book line
Not posted
Final Alcorn State by 3. 83 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Spinks-Casem Stadium - at
Florida Atlantic Owls
4-1 · SOS #119
Loss 10-66
Week 5
Our number· model now
Florida Atlantic by 29
Total 67
Book line
Not posted
Final Florida Atlantic by 56. 76 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Flagler Credit Union Stadium - vs
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
3-4 · SOS #144
Loss 34-38
Week 6
Our number· model now
Texas Southern by 7
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
Final Mississippi Valley State by 4. 72 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Shell Energy Stadium - vs
Southern Jaguars
3-5 · SOS #66
Win 24-21
Week 8
Our number· model now
Southern by 3
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas Southern by 3. 45 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Shell Energy Stadium - vs
Grambling Tigers
4-3 · SOS #49
Sun, Nov 1, 12:30 AM
Week 9
Proj 28-36 · 31%
Our number
Grambling by 8
Total 64
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Shell Energy Stadium - vs
Alabama State Hornets
4-3 · SOS #124
Sat, Nov 7, 8:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 17-36 · 10%
Our number
Alabama State by 19
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Shell Energy Stadium - at
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
6-2 · SOS #146
Sat, Nov 14, 8:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 19-42 · 7%
Our number
Alabama A&M by 23
Total 61
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Louis Crews Stadium - vs
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
4-3 · SOS #73
Sat, Nov 21, 9:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 26-35 · 28%
Our number
Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 9
Total 61
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Shell Energy Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Texas Southern Tigers stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-36.8
Adj. offense
9.8
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
46.5
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 24.9 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 43.0 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.50 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.32 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 183.4 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 163.0 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 198.1 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 216.4 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.00 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.71 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.29 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 3.14 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.06 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.14 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 38.3% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 46.5% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 13.7% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 14.9% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.5% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 17.3% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.53 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 5.09 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 23 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 18 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 63.0 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.09 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.01 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.10 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.18 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 42.1% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 34.0% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 18.9% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 28.5% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 32.7% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 37.3% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 45.1% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 53.2% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 72.7% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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