Matchup analysis
Our model projects Alabama A&M 42, Texas Southern 19 at Louis Crews Stadium in Week 11. That is a heavy edge: Alabama A&M wins about 93% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 22.6 points and 61.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
Texas Southern is 2-5 against the 138th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 24.9 and allowing 43 points per game (-18.1 per game). Alabama A&M is 6-2 against the 152nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 40.1 and allowing 20 points per game (+20.1 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between a tie and Alabama A&M by 45 about 80% of the time.
Alabama A&M gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Alabama A&M by about 20.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Texas Southern vs Alabama A&M: stat comparison
| Stat | Texas Southern | Alabama A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.9 | 40.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 43.0 | 20.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.50 | 7.54 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.32 | 4.34 |
| Rushing yards per game | 183.4 | 203.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 163.0 | 285.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 198.1 | 138.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 216.4 | 145.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 0.88 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.71 | 1.13 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29 | 2.63 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.14 | 0.75 |
| Stat | Texas Southern | Alabama A&M |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.13 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14 | +0.01 |
| Success rate | 38.3% | 44.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 46.5% | 37.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7% | 15.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.9% | 10.7% |
| Havoc rate | 13.5% | 15.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 17.3% | 14.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.53 | 3.72 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 5.09 | 2.62 |
| Average starting field position | opp 23 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 18 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.0 | 64.8 |
| Stat | Texas Southern | Alabama A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.09 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18 | -0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.1% | 51.2% |
| Passing success rate | 34.0% | 46.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 18.9% | 19.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.5% | 35.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.7% | 29.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 37.3% | 50.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.1% | 29.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.2% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.7% | 48.2% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas Southern schedule · Alabama A&M schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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