Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Southern 31.1, Texas Southern 27.3 at Shell Energy Stadium in Week 8. That is a lean: Southern wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.8 points and 58.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Southern is 3-4, scoring 23.1 and allowing 34.7 points per game (-11.6 per game). Texas Southern is 1-5, scoring 25 and allowing 46.7 points per game (-21.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Southern by 26 and Texas Southern by 19 about 80% of the time.
Texas Southern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Southern is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Southern 21, Texas Southern 24. Texas Southern won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 6.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Southern 31.1, Texas Southern 27.3 | Southern 60%wrong winner | 6.8 | 13.3 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Southern 21, Texas Southern 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Southern vs Texas Southern: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Southern | Texas Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.6 | 22.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 36.1 | 24.7 |
| Yards per play | 5.58 | 5.42 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.97 | 6.02 |
| Rushing yards per game | 185.5 | 180.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 179.4 | 165.2 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 191.0 | 187.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 225.6 | 198.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.27 | 0.80 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.82 | 1.10 |
| Sacks per game | 1.82 | 0.80 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.18 | 1.70 |
| Stat | Southern | Texas Southern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 37.9% | 40.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.7% | 45.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3% | 10.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5% | 12.8% |
| Havoc rate | 12.6% | 9.8% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.2% | 11.9% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.22 | 3.36 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.64 | 2.36 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.5 | 63.8 |
| Stat | Southern | Texas Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04 | -0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.5% | 45.7% |
| Passing success rate | 35.2% | 38.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.6% | 16.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.8% | 30.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.9% | 33.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.1% | 38.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.1% | 42.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.5% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 78.3% | 49.2% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southern schedule · Texas Southern schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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