2026 schedule
Southern Jaguars
2026 season so far
Southern is 3-5 against the 90th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.9 and allowing 33.4 points per game (-10.5 per game).
Southern plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Florida A&M in Week 9. We project Southern 25, Florida A&M 28 — Southern wins 41% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Alabama State Hornets
1-0 · SOS #162
Loss 17-30
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Alabama State by 16.7
Total 61.1
DraftKings
ALST -19.5
Total 56.5
Final Alabama State by 13. Southern beat the spread. 47 points — under the 56.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Alabama State -19.5 (open Southern -19.5) · O/U 56.5 · ML +830 / -1760 · Southern 90% no-vig · model vs market +2.8 pts, -76 pct pts (Southern view)
ESPNU Legion Field (AL) - vs
Kentucky State Thorobreds
1-1 · SOS #170
Win 34-15
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Kentucky State by 3.2
Total 55.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Southern by 19. 49 points. No book line was saved for this game.
A.W. Mumford Stadium - at
#22 Houston Cougars
2-0 · SOS #36
Loss 6-77
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Houston by 42.8
Total 53.2
DraftKings
HOU -51.5
Total 61.5
Final Houston by 71. Houston beat the spread. 83 points — over the 61.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Houston -51.75 (open Houston -51.5) · O/U 61.75 (open 60.5) · model vs market -9.0 pts (Houston view)
ESPN+ TDECU Stadium - vs
Louisiana Christian Wildcats
No record · SOS #174
Win 50-31
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Southern by 5.7
Total 56.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Southern by 19. 81 points. No book line was saved for this game.
A.W. Mumford Stadium - at
Jackson State Tigers
4-0 · SOS #163
Loss 17-35
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Jackson State by 25.5
Total 58.3
DraftKings
JKST -20.5
Total 57.5
Final Jackson State by 18. Southern beat the spread. 52 points — under the 57.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Jackson State -20.5 · O/U 57.5 · ML +710 / -1340 · Jackson State 88% no-vig · model vs market +5.0 pts, +7 pct pts (Jackson State view)
ESPN+ Mississippi Veterans Memorial Stadium - vs
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
3-2 · SOS #99
Loss 10-41
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Southern by 2.1
Total 63.3
DraftKings
SOU -3
Total 55.5
Final Arkansas-Pine Bluff by 31. Arkansas-Pine Bluff beat the spread. 51 points — under the 55.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Southern -3 (open Southern -4.5) · O/U 55.5 (open 56.5) · ML +115 / -143 · Southern 56% no-vig · model vs market -0.9 pts, -0 pct pts (Southern view)
A.W. Mumford Stadium - at
Prairie View A&M Panthers
2-5 · SOS #67
Win 28-14
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Prairie View A&M by 14.7
Total 52.1
DraftKings
PV -15.5
Total 50.5
Final Southern by 14. Southern beat the spread. 42 points — under the 50.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Prairie View A&M -15.5 · O/U 50.5 (open 56.5) · ML +537 / -860 · Prairie View A&M 85% no-vig · model vs market -0.8 pts, -2 pct pts (Prairie View A&M view)
Panther Stadium - at
Texas Southern Tigers
2-5 · SOS #138
Loss 21-24
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Southern by 3.8
Total 58.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Texas Southern by 3. 45 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Shell Energy Stadium - at
Florida A&M Rattlers
2-6 · SOS #21
Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 25-28 · 41%
Our number
Florida A&M by 3
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Bragg Memorial Stadium - vs
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
5-3 · SOS #125
Sat, Nov 7, 8:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 25-29 · 42%
Our number
Bethune-Cookman by 4
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
A.W. Mumford Stadium - vs
Alcorn State Braves
4-4 · SOS #164
Sat, Nov 14, 8:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 28-34 · 36%
Our number
Alcorn State by 6
Total 62
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
A.W. Mumford Stadium - vs
Grambling Tigers
4-3 · SOS #60
Sat, Nov 28, 7:00 PM
Week 13
Proj 28-33 · 38%
Our number
Grambling by 5
Total 61
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Caesars Superdome
Times shown in your local time
Southern Jaguars stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-31.5
Adj. offense
10.7
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
42.2
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 22.9 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 33.4 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.21 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.93 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 183.8 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 158.0 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 230.6 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 186.8 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.75 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.88 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.00 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.38 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.04 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.04 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 36.5% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 42.6% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.4% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.8% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.4% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 11.8% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.72 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.59 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 10 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 6 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 65.6 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.01 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.09 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.15 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.08 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 37.0% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 35.5% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 17.5% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 25.1% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 30.1% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 36.7% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 39.3% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 57.6% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 76.0% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.