Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Houston 48, Southern 5.2 at TDECU Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Houston wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 42.8 points and 53.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Southern is 1-1, scoring 25.5 and allowing 22.5 points per game (+3 per game). Houston (No. 22) is 1-0, scoring 33 and allowing 20 points per game (+13 per game).
Southern plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Houston's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Houston by 20 and Houston by 65 about 80% of the time.
Houston gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Houston by about 40.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Southern 6, Houston 77. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 28.2 points and the total by 29.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Southern / Houston) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Houston -51.5 → Houston -51.75 | 60.5 → 61.75 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Houston -51.5 | 60.5 → 61.5 | — / — |
| Bovada | Houston -51.5 → Houston -52 | 60.5 → 62 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Houston win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Houston -43 | 53.1 | 100% |
| Market consensus | Houston -52 | 61.8 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Houston -50.5 | 61.1 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Houston win probability
- model 100% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Houston -42.8 · market Houston -51.75 · difference -9.0 pts (Houston view)
- Total
- model 53.1 · market 61.75 · difference -8.6
Model margin is 9.0 pts more toward Southern than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Southern 5.2, Houston 48.0 | Houston 100%right winner | 28.2 | 29.9 |
| New formula | Southern 7.3, Houston 45.4 | Houston 99%right winner | 32.9 | 30.3 |
Final: Southern 6, Houston 77. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Southern vs Houston: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Southern | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.6 | 29.1#55 |
| Points allowed per game | 36.1 | 22.8#48 |
| Yards per play | 5.58 | 5.64#86 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.97 | 5.22#28 |
| Rushing yards per game | 185.5 | 186.8#42 |
| Net passing yards per game | 179.4 | 223.4#73 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 191.0 | 138.9#31 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 225.6 | 206.2#48 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.27 | 0.77#26 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.82 | 1.23#46 |
| Sacks per game | 1.82 | 2.23#50 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.18 | 1.31#22 |
| Stat | Southern | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.02#99 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | -0.07#23 |
| Success rate | 37.9% | 42.4%#69 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.7% | 41.0%#62 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.3% | 11.6%#92 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.5% | 10.4%#28 |
| Havoc rate | 12.6% | 15.3%#10 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.2% | 13.4%#104 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.22 | 4.05#58 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.64 | 3.85#67 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | own 31#38 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | own 30#86 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.5 | 72.8#10 |
| Stat | Southern | Houston |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.09#126 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.04 | +0.09#49 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | -0.02#49 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | -0.12#23 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.5% | 40.9%#97 |
| Passing success rate | 35.2% | 44.4%#34 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.6% | 19.5%#94 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.8% | 27.9%#92 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.9% | 25.1%#15 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.1% | 40.5%#77 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.1% | 36.9%#37 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.5% | 71.1%#20 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 78.3% | 47.6%#10 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Southern schedule · Houston schedule · all Week 2 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.