Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Kentucky State 29.3, Southern 26.1 at A.W. Mumford Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Kentucky State wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.2 points and 55.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Kentucky State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Southern is 0-1, scoring 17 and allowing 30 points per game (-13 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kentucky State by 26 and Southern by 19 about 80% of the time.
Southern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Kentucky State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Kentucky State 15, Southern 34. Southern won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 22.2 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Kentucky State 29.3, Southern 26.1 | Kentucky State 58%wrong winner | 22.2 | 6.4 |
| New formula | Kentucky State 26.0, Southern 30.6 | Southern 61%right winner | 14.4 | 7.7 |
Final: Kentucky State 15, Southern 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Kentucky State vs Southern: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Kentucky State | Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.0 | 18.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 37.0 | 36.1 |
| Yards per play | 4.97 | 5.58 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.77 | 5.97 |
| Rushing yards per game | 133.0 | 185.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 195.0 | 179.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 220.0 | 191.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 213.0 | 225.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00 | 1.27 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Sacks per game | 0.00 | 1.82 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00 | 1.18 |
| Stat | Kentucky State | Southern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02 | -0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.14 | +0.08 |
| Success rate | 42.1% | 37.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 44.7% | 43.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.6% | 11.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.3% | 12.5% |
| Havoc rate | 11.6% | 12.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.1% | 12.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.22 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 4.64 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.0 | 65.5 |
| Stat | Kentucky State | Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.12 | -0.04 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.19 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.09 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 35.3% | 43.5% |
| Passing success rate | 46.9% | 35.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 24.5% | 19.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.3% | 25.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.9% | 35.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0% | 42.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 53.8% | 43.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 50.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 78.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kentucky State schedule · Southern schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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