Matchup analysis
Our model projects Grambling 33, Southern 28 on a neutral field at Caesars Superdome in Week 13. That is a lean: Grambling wins about 62% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.6 points and 61.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Grambling is 4-3 against the 49th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 36.7 and allowing 39.3 points per game (-2.6 per game). Southern is 3-5 against the 66th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.9 and allowing 33.4 points per game (-10.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Grambling by 27 and Southern by 18 about 80% of the time.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Grambling vs Southern: stat comparison
| Stat | Grambling | Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.7 | 22.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 39.3 | 33.4 |
| Yards per play | 6.86 | 5.21 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.09 | 6.93 |
| Rushing yards per game | 183.9 | 183.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 242.6 | 158.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 195.1 | 230.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 263.6 | 186.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.57 | 0.88 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.57 | 1.38 |
| Stat | Grambling | Southern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 42.0% | 36.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 45.5% | 42.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.7% | 10.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 16.1% | 12.8% |
| Havoc rate | 13.3% | 13.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.9% | 11.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.79 | 3.72 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.81 | 4.59 |
| Average starting field position | opp 12 | opp 10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.1 | 65.6 |
| Stat | Grambling | Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.21 | -0.09 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18 | -0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.9% | 37.0% |
| Passing success rate | 43.0% | 35.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.6% | 17.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.6% | 25.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.0% | 30.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.6% | 36.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.3% | 39.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 72.4% | 76.0% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Grambling schedule · Southern schedule · all Week 13 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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