Matchup analysis
Our model projects Bethune-Cookman 29, Southern 25 at A.W. Mumford Stadium in Week 10. That is a lean: Bethune-Cookman wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.2 points and 53.9 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Bethune-Cookman is 5-3 against the 113th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.9 and allowing 28.1 points per game (-0.2 per game). Southern is 3-5 against the 66th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.9 and allowing 33.4 points per game (-10.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Bethune-Cookman by 26 and Southern by 19 about 80% of the time.
Southern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Bethune-Cookman is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Bethune-Cookman vs Southern: stat comparison
| Stat | Bethune-Cookman | Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 27.9 | 22.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.1 | 33.4 |
| Yards per play | 5.23 | 5.21 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.27 | 6.93 |
| Rushing yards per game | 234.4 | 183.8 |
| Net passing yards per game | 105.8 | 158.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 206.6 | 230.6 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 170.6 | 186.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88 | 0.75 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.75 | 0.88 |
| Sacks per game | 2.75 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.88 | 1.38 |
| Stat | Bethune-Cookman | Southern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.03 | -0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 39.0% | 36.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.6% | 42.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.0% | 10.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.0% | 12.8% |
| Havoc rate | 17.1% | 13.4% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.5% | 11.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.01 | 3.72 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.87 | 4.59 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | opp 10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 7 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.0 | 65.6 |
| Stat | Bethune-Cookman | Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.15 | -0.09 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.17 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.20 | -0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.7% | 37.0% |
| Passing success rate | 31.5% | 35.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.7% | 17.5% |
| Passing-down success rate | 26.5% | 25.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.8% | 30.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.6% | 36.7% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.8% | 39.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.1% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.7% | 76.0% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Bethune-Cookman schedule · Southern schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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