Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Southern 31, Louisiana Christian 25.3 at A.W. Mumford Stadium in Week 3. That is a lean: Southern wins about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.7 points and 56.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Louisiana Christian is 1-0, scoring 42 and allowing 37 points per game (+5 per game). Southern is 1-2, scoring 19 and allowing 40.7 points per game (-21.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Louisiana Christian by 17 and Southern by 28 about 80% of the time.
Southern gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Southern by about 3.6.
Result: Louisiana Christian 31, Southern 50. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 13.3 points and the total by 24.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Louisiana Christian 25.3, Southern 31.0 | Southern 65%right winner | 13.3 | 24.7 |
| New formula | Louisiana Christian 26.7, Southern 34.4 | Southern 68%right winner | 11.3 | 20.0 |
Final: Louisiana Christian 31, Southern 50. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Louisiana Christian vs Southern: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Louisiana Christian | Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 9.0 | 18.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 54.0 | 36.1 |
| Yards per play | 3.18 | 5.58 |
| Yards per play allowed | 8.22 | 5.97 |
| Rushing yards per game | 113.0 | 185.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 81.0 | 179.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 305.0 | 191.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 344.0 | 225.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.27 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.00 | 0.82 |
| Sacks per game | 0.00 | 1.82 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 5.00 | 1.18 |
| Stat | Louisiana Christian | Southern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05 | -0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17 | +0.08 |
| Success rate | 37.8% | 37.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.4% | 43.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4% | 11.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.6% | 12.5% |
| Havoc rate | 10.4% | 12.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.4% | 12.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.22 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 4.64 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.0 | 65.5 |
| Stat | Louisiana Christian | Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.11 | -0.04 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.25 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 26.7% | 43.5% |
| Passing success rate | 18.8% | 35.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.8% | 19.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.8% | 25.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.9% | 35.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 20.0% | 42.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 55.6% | 43.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 50.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 78.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Louisiana Christian schedule · Southern schedule · all Week 3 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.