Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Alabama State 38.9, Southern 22.2 on a neutral field at Legion Field (AL) in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Alabama State wins about 86% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 16.7 points and 61.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans high scoring.
Alabama State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Southern has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Alabama State by 39 and Southern by 6 about 80% of the time.
Neutral site, so no home-field points either way. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Alabama State 30, Southern 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.7 points and the total by 14.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Alabama State / Southern) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Southern -19.5 → Alabama State -19.5 | 56.5 | +830 / -1760 |
| DraftKings | Southern -19.5 → Alabama State -19.5 | 56.5 | +830 / -1760 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Southern win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Alabama State -16.5 | 61.1 | 14% |
| Market consensus | Alabama State -19.5 | 56.5 | 90% |
| Blended projection | Alabama State -19 | 57.1 | 10% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Southern win probability
- model 14% · market (no-vig) 90% · difference -76 pts
- Margin
- model Alabama State -16.7 · market Alabama State -19.5 · difference +2.8 pts (Southern view)
- Total
- model 61.1 · market 56.5 · difference +4.6
Model margin is 2.8 pts more toward Southern than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Alabama State 38.9, Southern 22.2 | Alabama State 86%right winner | 3.7 | 14.1 |
| New formula | Alabama State 37.9, Southern 17.7 | Alabama State 88%right winner | 7.2 | 8.6 |
Final: Alabama State 30, Southern 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Alabama State vs Southern: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Alabama State | Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 42.4 | 18.6 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.4 | 36.1 |
| Yards per play | 8.09 | 5.58 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.63 | 5.97 |
| Rushing yards per game | 227.9 | 185.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 268.5 | 179.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 216.5 | 191.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 200.6 | 225.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.27 | 1.27 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.82 | 0.82 |
| Sacks per game | 1.64 | 1.82 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.09 | 1.18 |
| Stat | Alabama State | Southern |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.27 | -0.05 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.08 |
| Success rate | 50.2% | 37.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.5% | 43.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 18.5% | 11.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% | 12.5% |
| Havoc rate | 10.5% | 12.6% |
| Havoc allowed | 8.6% | 12.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.18 | 3.22 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.28 | 4.64 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.4 | 65.5 |
| Stat | Alabama State | Southern |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.18 | -0.05 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.37 | -0.04 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.6% | 43.5% |
| Passing success rate | 56.7% | 35.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 15.4% | 19.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 39.1% | 25.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.9% | 35.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0% | 42.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.7% | 43.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.7% | 50.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.9% | 78.3% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Alabama State schedule · Southern schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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