2026 schedule
Alabama State Hornets
2026 season so far
Alabama State is 4-3 against the 162nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.7 and allowing 17.9 points per game (+7.8 per game).
Alabama State plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Alabama A&M in Week 9. We project Alabama State 28, Alabama A&M 27 — Alabama State wins 52% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- vs
Southern Jaguars
0-1 · SOS #90
Win 30-17
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Alabama State by 16.7
Total 61.1
DraftKings
ALST -19.5
Total 56.5
Final Alabama State by 13. Southern beat the spread. 47 points — under the 56.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Alabama State -19.5 (open Southern -19.5) · O/U 56.5 · ML +830 / -1760 · Southern 90% no-vig · model vs market +2.8 pts, -76 pct pts (Southern view)
ESPNU Legion Field (AL) - vs
Lane Dragons
0-2 · SOS #18
Win 34-0
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Alabama State by 15
Total 59.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Alabama State by 34. 34 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ASU Football Stadium - at
Troy Trojans
2-0 · SOS #113
Loss 17-34
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Troy by 23.4
Total 50.6
DraftKings
TROY -23.5
Total 52.5
Final Troy by 17. Alabama State beat the spread. 51 points — under the 52.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Troy -23.75 (open Troy -22.5) · O/U 52.5 (open 51.5) · ML +1025 / -2050 · Troy 91% no-vig · model vs market -0.4 pts, +2 pct pts (Troy view)
ESPN+ Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) - vs
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils
1-4 · SOS #156
Win 41-15
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Alabama State by 35.3
Total 51.9
DraftKings
ALST -34.5
Total 54.5
Final Alabama State by 26. Mississippi Valley State beat the spread. 56 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Alabama State -34.5 · O/U 54.5 (open 55.5) · model vs market +0.8 pts (Alabama State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 81°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMGM)ASU Football Stadium - at
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats
3-2 · SOS #125
Loss 10-16
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Alabama State by 9.8
Total 58.8
DraftKings
ALST -7
Total 51.5
Final Bethune-Cookman by 6. Bethune-Cookman beat the spread. 26 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Alabama State -7 (open Alabama State -7.5) · O/U 51.5 (open 54.5) · ML -269 / +208 · Bethune-Cookman 31% no-vig · model vs market -2.8 pts, -5 pct pts (Bethune-Cookman view)
Game-time weather: Light rain, 73°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDAB)Daytona Stadium - vs
Florida A&M Rattlers
2-4 · SOS #21
Loss 27-28
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Alabama State by 19.9
Total 50.7
DraftKings
ALST -14.5
Total 47.5
Final Florida A&M by 1. Florida A&M beat the spread. 55 points — over the 47.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Alabama State -14.5 · O/U 47.5 (open 53.5) · ML +473 / -720 · Alabama State 83% no-vig · model vs market +5.4 pts, +7 pct pts (Alabama State view)
Game-time weather: Light rain, 70°F, Wind 11 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMGM)ASU Football Stadium - at
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
3-3 · SOS #99
Win 21-15
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Alabama State by 6.1
Total 57.1
DraftKings
ALST -3.5
Total 54.5
Final Alabama State by 6. Alabama State beat the spread. 36 points — under the 54.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Alabama State -3.5 (open Alabama State -4.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 59.5) · ML -149 / +120 · Arkansas-Pine Bluff 43% no-vig · model vs market -2.6 pts, -9 pct pts (Arkansas-Pine Bluff view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 66°F, Wind 14 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPBF)Simmons Bank Field - vs
Alabama A&M Bulldogs
6-2 · SOS #152
Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 28-27 · 52%
Our number
Alabama State by 1
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 75°F, Wind 10 mph SE, 12% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Legion Field (AL) - at
Texas Southern Tigers
2-5 · SOS #138
Sat, Nov 7, 8:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 36-17 · 90%
Our number
Alabama State by 19
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Shell Energy Stadium - vs
Jackson State Tigers
6-2 · SOS #163
Sat, Nov 14, 8:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 26-25 · 54%
Our number
Alabama State by 1
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ASU Football Stadium - vs
Prairie View A&M Panthers
4-5 · SOS #67
Sat, Nov 21, 8:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 29-19 · 76%
Our number
Alabama State by 10
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ASU Football Stadium - vs
Tuskegee Golden Tigers
4-4 · SOS #14
Thu, Nov 26, 8:00 PM
Week 13
Proj 37-13 · 93%
Our number
Alabama State by 24
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ASU Football Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Alabama State Hornets stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-14.3
Adj. offense
17.9
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
32.2
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 25.7 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 17.9 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.10 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.45 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 164.0 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 120.3 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 173.0 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 169.6 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.86 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.14 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.00 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.29 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.02 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.02 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 39.4% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 40.2% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.7% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 11.1% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 16.1% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 12.6% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.43 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.33 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 11 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 11 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 55.7 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.05 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.13 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.05 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.08 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 40.7% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 39.0% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 19.3% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 22.8% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 29.4% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 33.8% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 33.0% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 50.4% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 49.2% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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