Matchup analysis
Our model projects Alabama State 28, Alabama A&M 27 on a neutral field at Legion Field (AL) in Week 9. That is a genuine toss-up: Alabama State wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.7 points and 54.9 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Alabama State is 4-3 against the 162nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.7 and allowing 17.9 points per game (+7.8 per game). Alabama A&M is 6-2 against the 152nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 40.1 and allowing 20 points per game (+20.1 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Alabama State by 23 and Alabama A&M by 22 about 80% of the time.
Neutral site, so no home-field points either way. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Alabama State vs Alabama A&M: stat comparison
| Stat | Alabama State | Alabama A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.7 | 40.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 17.9 | 20.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.10 | 7.54 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.45 | 4.34 |
| Rushing yards per game | 164.0 | 203.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 120.3 | 285.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 173.0 | 138.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 169.6 | 145.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.86 | 0.88 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.14 | 1.13 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 2.63 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.29 | 0.75 |
| Stat | Alabama State | Alabama A&M |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.13 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.01 |
| Success rate | 39.4% | 44.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.2% | 37.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.7% | 15.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.1% | 10.7% |
| Havoc rate | 16.1% | 15.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.6% | 14.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.43 | 3.72 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.33 | 2.62 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 55.7 | 64.8 |
| Stat | Alabama State | Alabama A&M |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.13 | +0.15 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | -0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.7% | 51.2% |
| Passing success rate | 39.0% | 46.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.3% | 19.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 22.8% | 35.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.4% | 29.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.8% | 50.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.0% | 29.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.4% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 49.2% | 48.2% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Alabama State schedule · Alabama A&M schedule · all Week 9 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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