Matchup analysis
Our model projects Alabama State 37, Tuskegee 13 at ASU Football Stadium in Week 13. That is a heavy edge: Alabama State wins about 93% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 24.3 points and 50.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Tuskegee is 4-4 against the 55th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 7 and allowing 41 points per game (-34 per game). Alabama State is 4-3 against the 124th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.7 and allowing 17.9 points per game (+7.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Alabama State by 2 and Alabama State by 47 about 80% of the time.
Alabama State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Alabama State by about 22.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Tuskegee vs Alabama State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Tuskegee | Alabama State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 10.5 | 42.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 44.0 | 21.4 |
| Yards per play | 5.92 | 8.09 |
| Yards per play allowed | 8.27 | 5.63 |
| Rushing yards per game | 102.5 | 227.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 193.5 | 268.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 200.5 | 216.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 358.0 | 200.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 0.27 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50 | 1.82 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 1.64 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50 | 1.09 |
| Stat | Tuskegee | Alabama State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.12 | +0.27 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.59 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 37.5% | 50.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 59.6% | 47.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 16.7% | 18.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 19.5% | 12.4% |
| Havoc rate | 9.4% | 10.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 16.7% | 8.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.05 | 4.18 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.06 | 4.28 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 50.0 | 61.4 |
| Stat | Tuskegee | Alabama State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.25 | +0.18 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.40 | +0.37 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.36 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.88 | -0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.2% | 52.6% |
| Passing success rate | 31.7% | 56.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.6% | 15.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.0% | 39.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 56.2% | 35.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.4% | 50.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 57.1% | 48.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 68.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 66.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tuskegee schedule · Alabama State schedule · all Week 13 projections
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