Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Alabama State 34.3, Bethune-Cookman 24.5 at Daytona Stadium in Week 5. That is a solid edge: Alabama State wins about 74% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 9.8 points and 58.8 combined points.
Alabama State is 3-1, scoring 30.5 and allowing 16.5 points per game (+14 per game). Bethune-Cookman is 2-2, scoring 33 and allowing 31.3 points per game (+1.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Alabama State by 32 and Bethune-Cookman by 13 about 80% of the time.
Bethune-Cookman gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Alabama State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Result: Alabama State 10, Bethune-Cookman 16. Bethune-Cookman won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 15.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Alabama State / Bethune-Cookman) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Alabama State -7.5 → Alabama State -7 | 54.5 → 51.5 | -269 / +208 |
| DraftKings | Alabama State -7.5 → Alabama State -7 | 54.5 → 51.5 | -269 / +208 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Bethune-Cookman win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Alabama State -10 | 58.8 | 26% |
| Market consensus | Alabama State -7 | 51.5 | 31% |
| Blended projection | Alabama State -7.5 | 52.6 | 30% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Bethune-Cookman win probability
- model 26% · market (no-vig) 31% · difference -5 pts
- Margin
- model Alabama State -9.8 · market Alabama State -7 · difference -2.8 pts (Bethune-Cookman view)
- Total
- model 58.8 · market 51.5 · difference +7.3
Model margin is 2.8 pts more toward Alabama State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Alabama State 34.3, Bethune-Cookman 24.5 | Alabama State 74%wrong winner | 15.8 | 32.8 |
| New formula | Alabama State 33.8, Bethune-Cookman 23.7 | Alabama State 75%wrong winner | 16.1 | 31.5 |
Final: Alabama State 10, Bethune-Cookman 16. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Alabama State vs Bethune-Cookman: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Alabama State | Bethune-Cookman |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 42.4 | 29.7 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.4 | 32.7 |
| Yards per play | 8.09 | 6.34 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.63 | 6.74 |
| Rushing yards per game | 227.9 | 174.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 268.5 | 235.3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 216.5 | 209.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 200.6 | 261.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.27 | 1.40 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.82 | 0.90 |
| Sacks per game | 1.64 | 1.70 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.09 | 2.00 |
| Stat | Alabama State | Bethune-Cookman |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.27 | +0.03 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.17 |
| Success rate | 50.2% | 42.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.5% | 48.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 18.5% | 13.0% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% | 14.7% |
| Havoc rate | 10.5% | 12.3% |
| Havoc allowed | 8.6% | 13.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.18 | 2.73 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.28 | 4.48 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 12 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.4 | 64.6 |
| Stat | Alabama State | Bethune-Cookman |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.18 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.37 | +0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15 | +0.21 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.14 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.6% | 43.1% |
| Passing success rate | 56.7% | 45.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 15.4% | 18.2% |
| Passing-down success rate | 39.1% | 29.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.9% | 32.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0% | 37.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.7% | 48.1% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.7% | 30.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.9% | 69.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Alabama State schedule · Bethune-Cookman schedule · all Week 5 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.