Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Alabama State 43.6, Mississippi Valley State 8.3 at ASU Football Stadium in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: Alabama State wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 35.2 points and 51.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Mississippi Valley State is 1-3, scoring 11.8 and allowing 34.3 points per game (-22.5 per game). Alabama State is 2-1, scoring 27 and allowing 17 points per game (+10 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Alabama State by 13 and Alabama State by 58 about 80% of the time.
Alabama State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Alabama State by about 33.1.
Result: Mississippi Valley State 15, Alabama State 41. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 9.2 points and the total by 4.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Mississippi Valley State / Alabama State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Alabama State -34.5 | 55.5 → 54.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Alabama State -34.5 | 55.5 → 54.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Alabama State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Alabama State -35 | 51.9 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Alabama State -34.5 | 54.5 | 99% |
| Blended projection | Alabama State -35 | 54.8 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Alabama State win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Alabama State -35.2 · market Alabama State -34.5 · difference +0.7 pts (Alabama State view)
- Total
- model 51.9 · market 54.5 · difference -2.6
Model margin is 0.7 pts more toward Alabama State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Mississippi Valley State 8.3, Alabama State 43.6 | Alabama State 99%right winner | 9.2 | 4.1 |
| New formula | Mississippi Valley State 8.0, Alabama State 43.5 | Alabama State 99%right winner | 9.5 | 4.5 |
Final: Mississippi Valley State 15, Alabama State 41. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Mississippi Valley State vs Alabama State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Mississippi Valley State | Alabama State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 18.3 | 42.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 38.7 | 21.4 |
| Yards per play | 4.73 | 8.09 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.46 | 5.63 |
| Rushing yards per game | 94.5 | 227.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 214.4 | 268.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 195.9 | 216.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 238.4 | 200.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.70 | 0.27 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.80 | 1.82 |
| Sacks per game | 0.90 | 1.64 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.20 | 1.09 |
| Stat | Mississippi Valley State | Alabama State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.21 | +0.27 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 33.2% | 50.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 49.7% | 47.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.8% | 18.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.0% | 12.4% |
| Havoc rate | 11.8% | 10.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 20.1% | 8.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.31 | 4.18 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 4.28 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.3 | 61.4 |
| Stat | Mississippi Valley State | Alabama State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.24 | +0.18 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.19 | +0.37 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02 | +0.15 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15 | -0.05 |
| Rushing success rate | 34.2% | 52.6% |
| Passing success rate | 32.7% | 56.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 27.2% | 15.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.6% | 39.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 38.5% | 35.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 28.4% | 50.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.6% | 48.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.5% | 68.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 66.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Mississippi Valley State schedule · Alabama State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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