Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Troy 37, Alabama State 13.6 at Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: Troy wins about 94% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 23.4 points and 50.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Alabama State is 2-0, scoring 32 and allowing 8.5 points per game (+23.5 per game). Troy is 1-0, scoring 24 and allowing 21 points per game (+3 per game).
Alabama State plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Troy's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Troy by 1 and Troy by 46 about 80% of the time.
Troy gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Troy by about 21.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Alabama State 17, Troy 34. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.4 points and the total by 0.5.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Alabama State / Troy) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Troy -22.5 → Troy -23.75 | 51.5 → 52.5 | +1025 / -2050 |
| Bovada | Troy -22.5 → Troy -24 | 51.5 → 52.5 | +950 / -2000 |
| DraftKings | Troy -23.5 | 51.5 → 52.5 | +1100 / -2100 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Troy win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Troy -23.5 | 50.5 | 94% |
| Market consensus | Troy -24 | 52.5 | 91% |
| Blended projection | Troy -24 | 53.0 | 95% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Troy win probability
- model 94% · market (no-vig) 91% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Troy -23.4 · market Troy -23.75 · difference -0.4 pts (Troy view)
- Total
- model 50.5 · market 52.5 · difference -2.0
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Alabama State 13.6, Troy 37.0 | Troy 94%right winner | 6.4 | 0.5 |
| New formula | Alabama State 22.5, Troy 29.6 | Troy 67%right winner | 9.9 | 1.1 |
Final: Alabama State 17, Troy 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Alabama State vs Troy: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Alabama State | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 42.4 | 23.5#96 |
| Points allowed per game | 21.4 | 23.9#59 |
| Yards per play | 8.09 | 4.86#131 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.63 | 5.93#85 |
| Rushing yards per game | 227.9 | 125.6#121 |
| Net passing yards per game | 268.5 | 195.8#98 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 216.5 | 192.0#114 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 200.6 | 200.4#42 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.27 | 1.00#67 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.82 | 1.14#61 |
| Sacks per game | 1.64 | 2.43#29 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.09 | 4.21#136 |
| Stat | Alabama State | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.27 | -0.04#113 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | -0.07#28 |
| Success rate | 50.2% | 39.6%#108 |
| Success rate allowed | 47.5% | 39.5%#44 |
| Explosive play rate | 18.5% | 11.1%#108 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.4% | 13.3%#103 |
| Havoc rate | 10.5% | 13.4%#48 |
| Havoc allowed | 8.6% | 16.0%#133 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.18 | 4.13#46 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.28 | 3.43#23 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | own 32#23 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | own 30#83 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.4 | 66.1#70 |
| Stat | Alabama State | Troy |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.18 | -0.07#117 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.37 | -0.01#89 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15 | -0.03#45 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05 | -0.13#22 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.6% | 38.4%#114 |
| Passing success rate | 56.7% | 37.8%#105 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.4% | 23.4%#132 |
| Passing-down success rate | 39.1% | 28.4%#87 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.9% | 27.9%#43 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0% | 39.5%#87 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.7% | 40.6%#70 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.7% | 66.5%#38 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.9% | 48.7%#13 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Alabama State schedule · Troy schedule · all Week 2 projections
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