2026 schedule
Troy Trojans
2026 season so far
Troy is 3-4 against the 130th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.9 and allowing 24.9 points per game (-2 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Troy ranks 108th of 139 FBS teams overall — 111th on offense and 98th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.
Next up: at James Madison in Week 9. We project Troy 18, James Madison 36 — Troy wins 11% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 games- vs
Sam Houston Bearkats
0-1 · SOS #112
Win 24-21
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Troy by 13.3
Total 52.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Troy by 3. 45 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) - vs
Alabama State Hornets
2-1 · SOS #124
Win 34-17
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Troy by 23.4
Total 50.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Troy by 17. 51 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) - at
#20 Missouri Tigers
3-0 · SOS #37
Loss 17-27
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Missouri by 7.3
Total 54.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Missouri by 10. 44 points. No book line was saved for this game.
SECN+ Memorial Stadium - at
Utah State Aggies
1-3 · SOS #52
Loss 10-21
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Utah State by 5
Total 48.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Utah State by 11. 31 points. No book line was saved for this game.
CBSSN Maverik Stadium - vs
Southern Miss Golden Eagles
1-4 · SOS #94
Win 55-34
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Troy by 9.8
Total 49.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Troy by 21. 89 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN2 Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) - at
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
5-2 · SOS #109
Loss 6-33
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Louisiana by 3.9
Total 52.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Louisiana by 27. 39 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Our Lady of Lourdes Stadium - vs
UL Monroe Warhawks
1-6 · SOS #100
Loss 14-21
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Troy by 15.5
Total 52.9
Book line
Not posted
Final UL Monroe by 7. 35 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) - at
James Madison Dukes
7-1 · SOS #120
Thu, Oct 29, 11:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 18-36 · 11%
Our number
James Madison by 18
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN2 Bridgeforth Stadium - vs
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
5-2 · SOS #101
Sat, Nov 7, 9:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 21-28 · 31%
Our number
Louisiana Tech by 7
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) - at
South Alabama Jaguars
4-3 · SOS #107
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 27-32 · 36%
Our number
South Alabama by 5
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Hancock Whitney Stadium - vs
Georgia Southern Eagles
3-4 · SOS #68
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 24-27 · 41%
Our number
Georgia Southern by 3
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL) - at
Arkansas State Red Wolves
4-4 · SOS #96
Sat, Nov 28, 8:00 PM
Week 13
Proj 25-28 · 43%
Our number
Arkansas State by 3
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Centennial Bank Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Troy Trojans stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-9.5
107th in FBS
Adj. offense
20.9
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
30.3
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 22.9 | 105 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 24.9 | 76 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.75 | 92 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.23 | 40 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 213.3 | 24 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 183.4 | 113 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 140.6 | 50 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 183.9 | 33 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.86 | 63 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.14 | 36 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.71 | 98 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.14 | 93 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.05 | 91 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.03 | 64 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 41.4% | 93 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 41.9% | 80 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 11.7% | 95 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.1% | 81 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.6% | 77 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 15.1% | 111 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.48 | 113 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.79 | 65 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 27 | 129 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 31 | 115 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 69.0 | 38 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.13 | 40 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.05 | 120 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.01 | 44 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.07 | 80 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 43.8% | 74 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 35.1% | 124 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 14.9% | 32 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 28.1% | 102 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 27.0% | 36 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 34.0% | 120 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 33.3% | 23 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 65.1% | 58 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 58.7% | 68 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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