Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Missouri 30.8, Troy 23.5 at Memorial Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Missouri wins about 68% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.2 points and 54.3 combined points.
Troy is 2-0, scoring 29 and allowing 19 points per game (+10 per game). Missouri (No. 20) is 2-0, scoring 46 and allowing 17.5 points per game (+28.5 per game).
Missouri's strong defense (21st) should limit Troy's below-average offense (112th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 22 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Missouri's strong offense (25th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33 points against an average defense) against Troy's below-average defense (103rd).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Troy by 15 and Missouri by 30 about 80% of the time.
Missouri gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Missouri by about 5.1. The game is on SECN+.
Result: Troy 17, Missouri 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 2.8 points and the total by 10.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Troy / Missouri) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Missouri -27.25 → Missouri -26.75 | 49.5 → 49.75 | +1500 / -5500 |
| Bovada | Missouri -27 | 49.5 → 50 | +1300 / -6500 |
| DraftKings | Missouri -27.5 → Missouri -26.5 | 49.5 | +1700 / -4500 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Missouri win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Missouri -7 | 54.3 | 68% |
| Market consensus | Missouri -27 | 49.8 | 94% |
| Blended projection | Missouri -23.5 | 50.8 | 95% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Missouri win probability
- model 68% · market (no-vig) 94% · difference -26 pts
- Margin
- model Missouri -7.2 · market Missouri -26.75 · difference -19.5 pts (Missouri view)
- Total
- model 54.3 · market 49.75 · difference +4.5
Model margin is 19.5 pts more toward Troy than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Troy 23.5, Missouri 30.8 | Missouri 68%right winner | 2.8 | 10.3 |
| New formula | Troy 12.7, Missouri 40.0 | Missouri 96%right winner | 17.2 | 8.7 |
Final: Troy 17, Missouri 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Troy vs Missouri: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Troy | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.0#82 | 46.0#25 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.0#64 | 17.5#57 |
| Yards per play | 5.78#92 | 7.06#34 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.68#40 | 4.50#32 |
| Rushing yards per game | 215.5#41 | 188.0#64 |
| Net passing yards per game | 169.0#110 | 323.5#13 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 99.5#31 | 128.5#68 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 204.5#80 | 130.5#18 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00#26 | 0.50#34 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#38 | 1.00#52 |
| Sacks per game | 3.50#13 | 2.50#33 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50#112 | 0.50#12 |
| Stat | Troy | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#97 | +0.30#7 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.13#16 | -0.15#11 |
| Success rate | 37.0%#121 | 45.1%#49 |
| Success rate allowed | 37.7%#42 | 25.3%#3 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.7%#35 | 13.1%#64 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.7%#33 | 8.4%#15 |
| Havoc rate | 19.3%#11 | 18.8%#17 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.3%#119 | 10.9%#30 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.97#86 | 4.42#53 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.94#80 | 3.52#53 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#83 | own 39#9 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#53 | own 25#30 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.5#68 | 72.5#23 |
| Stat | Troy | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04#91 | -0.01#107 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04#82 | +0.65#3 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.17#19 | -0.05#47 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.10#26 | -0.23#11 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.3%#115 | 33.3%#124 |
| Passing success rate | 36.2%#108 | 59.3%#14 |
| Run stuff rate | 22.5%#119 | 17.3%#76 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.5%#72 | 39.4%#21 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 22.1%#23 | 20.3%#16 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 31.0%#124 | 50.0%#35 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.5%#55 | 21.4%#10 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 66.0%#64 | 55.2%#105 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 60.8%#78 | 72.2%#106 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Troy schedule · Missouri schedule · all Week 3 projections
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