2026 schedule
Missouri Tigers
2026 season so far
Missouri (No. 23) is 5-2 against the 30th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.1 and allowing 19.6 points per game (+11.5 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Missouri ranks 25th of 139 FBS teams overall — 39th on offense and 16th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.
Next up: at Arkansas in Week 9. We project Missouri 29, Arkansas 19 — Missouri wins 75% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 games- vs
Arkansas-Pine Bluff Golden Lions
1-1 · SOS #99
Win 54-14
Week 1
Our number· model now
Missouri by 40
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
Final Missouri by 40. 68 points. No book line was saved for this game.
SEC Network Memorial Stadium - at
Kansas Jayhawks
1-1 · SOS #62
Win 38-21
Week 2
Our number· model now
Missouri by 6
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
Final Missouri by 17. 59 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Fox David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium - vs
Troy Trojans
2-1 · SOS #113
Win 27-17
Week 3
Our number· model now
Missouri by 23
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
Final Missouri by 10. 44 points. No book line was saved for this game.
SECN+ Memorial Stadium - at
#24 Mississippi State Bulldogs
4-0 · SOS #5
Loss 24-31
Week 4
Our number· model now
Missouri by 4
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
Final Mississippi State by 7. 55 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 75°F, Wind 3 mph NW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KGTR)SEC Network Davis Wade Stadium - vs
#8 Florida Gators
4-1 · SOS #12
Win 45-17
Week 5
Our number· model now
Missouri by 2
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
Final Missouri by 28. 62 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 10 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHUF)ABC Memorial Stadium - vs
Texas A&M Aggies
3-3 · SOS #27
Win 27-6
Week 6
Our number· model now
Texas A&M by 1
Total 47
Book line
Not posted
Final Missouri by 21. 33 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 8 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHUF)ABC/Disney+ Memorial Stadium - at
#9 Ole Miss Rebels
5-1 · SOS #6
Loss 3-31
Week 7
Our number· model now
Ole Miss by 9
Total 55
Book line
Not posted
Final Ole Miss by 28. 34 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 66°F, Wind 10 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KUOX)SEC Network Vaught-Hemingway Stadium - at
Arkansas Razorbacks
3-4 · SOS #8
Sat, Oct 31, 11:45 PM
Week 9
Proj 29-19 · 75%
Our number
Missouri by 10
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 68°F, Wind 5 mph SE, 52% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDTSEC Network Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium - vs
#11 Texas Longhorns
5-2 · SOS #1
Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 20-26 · 34%
Our number
Texas by 6
Total 46
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Memorial Stadium - at
#3 Georgia Bulldogs
6-1 · SOS #52
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 19-34 · 16%
Our number
Georgia by 15
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Sanford Stadium - vs
#9 Kentucky Wildcats
7-1 · SOS #4
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 27-23 · 61%
Our number
Missouri by 4
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Memorial Stadium - vs
Oklahoma Sooners
4-3 · SOS #9
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 20-19 · 52%
Our number
Missouri by 1
Total 39
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Memorial Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Missouri Tigers stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+11.0
25th in FBS
Adj. offense
30.1
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
19.0
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 31.1 | 54 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 19.6 | 31 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.35 | 46 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.27 | 44 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 165.1 | 73 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 264.9 | 30 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 130.0 | 36 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 218.6 | 94 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.43 | 15 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.00 | 47 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.57 | 22 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.00 | 14 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.11 | 55 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.06 | 22 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 40.9% | 98 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 35.1% | 16 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 13.7% | 41 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.1% | 78 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 17.6% | 11 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 14.4% | 100 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.72 | 99 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.92 | 81 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 33 | 13 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 25 | 8 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 67.7 | 52 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.07 | 127 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.28 | 18 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.08 | 17 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.04 | 38 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 35.9% | 131 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 45.7% | 40 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 19.8% | 109 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 29.9% | 90 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 25.6% | 21 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 42.4% | 62 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 37.7% | 58 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 48.3% | 123 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 50.0% | 32 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.