Matchup analysis
Our model projects Missouri 27, Kentucky 23 at Memorial Stadium in Week 12. That is a lean: Missouri wins about 61% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 4.2 points and 49.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Kentucky (No. 9) is 7-1 against the 4th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.9 and allowing 24.8 points per game (+8.1 per game). Missouri (No. 23) is 5-2 against the 30th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.1 and allowing 19.6 points per game (+11.5 per game).
Missouri's strong defense (16th) should limit Kentucky's strong offense (35th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31 points against an average defense). Missouri's strong offense (39th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 30.1 points against an average defense) meets Kentucky's strong defense (33rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Missouri puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kentucky by 18 and Missouri by 27 about 80% of the time.
Missouri gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Missouri by about 2.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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Kentucky vs Missouri: stat comparison
| Stat | Kentucky | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.9#42 | 31.1#54 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.8#75 | 19.6#31 |
| Yards per play | 6.25#52 | 6.35#46 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.57#65 | 5.27#44 |
| Rushing yards per game | 178.5#57 | 165.1#73 |
| Net passing yards per game | 217.1#79 | 264.9#30 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 127.3#32 | 130.0#36 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 255.4#123 | 218.6#94 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.25#4 | 0.43#15 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.75#7 | 1.00#47 |
| Sacks per game | 2.63#21 | 2.57#22 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.13#87 | 1.00#14 |
| Stat | Kentucky | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12#49 | +0.11#55 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05#71 | -0.06#22 |
| Success rate | 48.9%#18 | 40.9%#98 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5%#111 | 35.1%#16 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.4%#56 | 13.7%#41 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9%#41 | 12.1%#78 |
| Havoc rate | 15.4%#33 | 17.6%#11 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.1%#26 | 14.4%#100 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.65#30 | 3.72#99 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.83#72 | 3.92#81 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#18 | own 33#13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#78 | own 25#8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.3#94 | 67.7#52 |
| Stat | Kentucky | Missouri |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.16#26 | -0.07#127 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09#71 | +0.28#18 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09#96 | -0.08#17 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#60 | -0.04#38 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.9%#7 | 35.9%#131 |
| Passing success rate | 45.9%#36 | 45.7%#40 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0%#47 | 19.8%#109 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.8%#74 | 29.9%#90 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 44.4%#138 | 25.6%#21 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.8%#116 | 42.4%#62 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.4%#133 | 37.7%#58 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.8%#45 | 48.3%#123 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.3%#90 | 50.0%#32 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kentucky schedule · Missouri schedule · all Week 12 projections
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