2026 schedule

Kentucky Wildcats

7-1SOS #4

2026 season so far

Kentucky (No. 9) is 7-1 against the 4th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.9 and allowing 24.8 points per game (+8.1 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Kentucky ranks 31st of 139 FBS teams overall — 35th on offense and 33rd on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: at Tennessee in Week 10. We project Kentucky 21, Tennessee 32 — Kentucky wins 23% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

vs
Youngstown State Penguins
1-1 · SOS #24
Win 45-13
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Kentucky by 26.9
Total 60.9
DraftKings
UK -22.5
Total 61.5
Final Kentucky by 32. Kentucky beat the spread. 58 points — under the 61.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Kentucky -22.25 (open Kentucky -23.25) · O/U 62 (open 62.5) · ML +950 / -1900 · Kentucky 91% no-vig · model vs market +4.6 pts, +5 pct pts (Kentucky view)
SECN+ Kroger Field
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missed
vs
#12 Alabama Crimson Tide
2-0 · SOS #2
Loss 17-45
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Alabama by 4.6
Total 50.2
DraftKings
ALA -9.5
Total 47.5
Final Alabama by 28. Alabama beat the spread. 62 points — over the 47.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Alabama -8.75 (open Alabama -10.5) · O/U 47.25 (open 49) · ML -395 / +302.5 · Kentucky 24% no-vig · model vs market +4.2 pts, +14 pct pts (Kentucky view)
ABC/Disney+ Kroger Field
Pregame calls · how each did
at
#9 Texas A&M Aggies
2-1 · SOS #27
Win 31-21
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Texas A&M by 13.2
Total 51.8
DraftKings
TA&M -16.5
Total 48.5
Final Kentucky by 10. Kentucky beat the spread. 52 points — over the 48.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Texas A&M -16.5 (open Texas A&M -15.75) · O/U 48.5 (open 48.75) · ML +537.5 / -800 · Texas A&M 85% no-vig · model vs market -3.3 pts, -4 pct pts (Texas A&M view)
ESPN Kyle Field
Pregame calls · how each did
Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded gamesHome favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: hit (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5
vs
South Alabama Jaguars
2-2 · SOS #103
Win 45-21
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Kentucky by 13.2
Total 56
DraftKings
UK -20.5
Total 54.5
Final Kentucky by 24. Kentucky beat the spread. 66 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Kentucky -20.5 (open Kentucky -20.25) · O/U 54.25 (open 55.25) · ML +850 / -1600 · Kentucky 90% no-vig · model vs market -7.3 pts, -9 pct pts (Kentucky view)
SEC Network Kroger Field
Pregame calls · how each did
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · K. Phillips RB · Low rush yds 65 (avg 75) · 75% · 19 ✓Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · P. Martin RB · Low rush yds 65 (avg 74) · 75% · 48 ✓Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · T. Dunbar RB · Low rush yds 41 (avg 42) · 75% · 11 ✓
at
South Carolina Gamecocks
2-3 · SOS #23
Win 35-34
Week 5
Our number· pregame
South Carolina by 6.7
Total 52.3
DraftKings
SC -2.5
Total 52.5
Final Kentucky by 1. Kentucky beat the spread. 69 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Carolina -2.5 (open South Carolina -5) · O/U 53 (open 51.5) · ML +122.5 / -143.5 · South Carolina 57% no-vig · model vs market +4.2 pts, +10 pct pts (South Carolina view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 81°F, Wind 5 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCUB)
SEC Network Williams-Brice Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: hit (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open Big-yardage short road dogShort road dog · better YPP · 2014–25 Road underdog getting 2.5 or less, much better in yards per play: Record 125 hits, 94 misses (57% hit rate) over 219 graded games · 2026: 9-5Short road dog · better YPP: hit
J. Patterson RB · Low rush yds 60 (avg 82) · 74% · 29 ✓C. Baxter RB · Low rush yds 62 (avg 78) · 71% · 48 ✓L. Sellers QB · High pass yds 223 (avg 208) · 52% · 226 ✓
vs
#10 LSU Tigers
4-2 · SOS #18
Win 35-34
Week 6
Our number· pregame
LSU by 8.3
Total 52.9
DraftKings
LSU -9.5
Total 50.5
Final Kentucky by 1. Kentucky beat the spread. 69 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: LSU -9.25 (open LSU -10.25) · O/U 50.5 (open 52.5) · ML -375 / +290 · Kentucky 25% no-vig · model vs market +0.9 pts, +5 pct pts (Kentucky view)
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 57°F, Wind 13 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLEX)
ESPN Kroger Field
Pregame calls · how each did
J. Patterson RB · Low rush yds 51 (avg 71) · 74% · 6 ✓S. Leavitt QB · Low rush yds 35 (avg 44) · 71% · 39 ✓C. Baxter RB · Low rush yds 58 (avg 72) · 70% · 123 ✗
at
Oklahoma Sooners
3-3 · SOS #9
Win 21-13
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Oklahoma by 9.9
Total 47.3
DraftKings
OU -7
Total 44.5
Final Kentucky by 8. Kentucky beat the spread. 34 points — under the 44.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oklahoma -6.75 · O/U 44 (open 42.5) · ML +217.5 / -265 · Oklahoma 70% no-vig · model vs market +3.2 pts, +4 pct pts (Oklahoma view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 57°F, Wind 5 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KOUN)
SEC Network Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: missed (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game
Finishing big-yardage dog vs mid-total fav2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank: Record 22 hits, 4 misses (85% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesFavorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank: hit (n=26; wk 5–7 11-1) · Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank
J. Patterson RB · Low rush yds 48 (avg 60) · 70% · 38 ✓
vs
Vanderbilt Commodores
3-5 · SOS #16
Win 34-17
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Kentucky by 8.9
Total 54.9
DraftKings
UK -9.5
Total 51.5
Final Kentucky by 17. Kentucky beat the spread. 51 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Kentucky -10 · O/U 51.5 · ML +330 / -450 · Kentucky 78% no-vig · model vs market -1.1 pts, -6 pct pts (Kentucky view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 57°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLEX)
SEC Network Kroger Field
Pregame calls · how each did
Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: hit (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · J. Curtis QB · Low rush yds 23 (avg 24) · 75% · 6 ✓Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · S. Alexander RB · Low rush yds 36 (avg 39) · 75% · 4 ✓Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · M. Young RB · Low rush yds 31 (avg 31) · 75% · -2 ✓
at
#16 Tennessee Volunteers
6-2 · SOS #25
Sat, Nov 7, 11:15 PM
Week 10
Proj 21-32 · 23%
Our number
Tennessee by 11
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN Neyland Stadium
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · J. Patterson RB · Low rush yds 47 (avg 55) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · C. Baxter RB · Low rush yds 57 (avg 70) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · J. Barnes RB · Low rush yds 35 (avg 37) · 78%
vs
#17 Florida Gators
5-2 · SOS #12
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 29-29 · 48%
Our number
dead even
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kroger Field
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
J. Baugh RB · TD threat 73%J. Baugh RB · Low rush yds 84 (avg 109) · 69%
at
#23 Missouri Tigers
5-2 · SOS #30
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 23-27 · 39%
Our number
Missouri by 4
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Memorial Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
C. Baxter RB · Low rush yds 54 (avg 70) · 70%
vs
Louisville Cardinals
4-3 · SOS #17
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 29-28 · 52%
Our number
Kentucky by 1
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kroger Field
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
I. Brown RB · Low rush yds 64 (avg 81) · 70%

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Kentucky Wildcats stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

+8.7

31st in FBS

Adj. offense

31.0

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

22.3

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	32.9	42 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	24.8	75 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	6.25	52 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.57	65 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	178.5	57 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	217.1	79 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	127.3	32 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	255.4	123 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.25	4 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	1.75	7 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	2.63	21 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	2.13	87 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.12	49 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.05	71 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	48.9%	18 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	44.5%	111 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	13.4%	56 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	10.9%	41 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	15.4%	33 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	11.1%	26 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	4.65	30 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.83	72 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 32	18 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 29	78 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	63.3	94 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.16	26 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.09	71 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.09	96 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.03	60 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	51.9%	7 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	45.9%	36 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	16.0%	47 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	30.8%	74 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	44.4%	138 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	34.8%	116 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	50.4%	133 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	65.8%	45 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	63.3%	90 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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