Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected South Carolina 29.5, Kentucky 22.8 at Williams-Brice Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: South Carolina wins about 67% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.7 points and 52.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Kentucky (No. 24) is 3-1, scoring 34.5 and allowing 25 points per game (+9.5 per game). South Carolina is 2-2, scoring 38.5 and allowing 24.8 points per game (+13.7 per game).
Expect Kentucky to find it hard going: South Carolina's strong defense (25th) outranks Kentucky's middle-of-the-pack offense (53rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.2 points against an average defense). South Carolina's strong offense (27th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Kentucky's middle-of-the-pack defense (47th); that mismatch is where most of South Carolina's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kentucky by 16 and South Carolina by 29 about 80% of the time.
South Carolina gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour South Carolina by about 4.6. The game is on SEC Network.
Result: Kentucky 35, South Carolina 34. Kentucky won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 7.7 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Kentucky / South Carolina) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | South Carolina -5 → South Carolina -2.5 | 51.5 → 53 | +122.5 / -143.5 |
| DraftKings | South Carolina -7 → South Carolina -2.5 | 49.5 → 52.5 | +120 / -142 |
| Bovada | South Carolina -3 → South Carolina -2.5 | 53.5 | +125 / -145 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | South Carolina win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | South Carolina -6.5 | 52.3 | 67% |
| Market consensus | South Carolina -2.5 | 53.0 | 57% |
| Blended projection | South Carolina -3 | 53.5 | 59% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- South Carolina win probability
- model 67% · market (no-vig) 57% · difference +10 pts
- Margin
- model South Carolina -6.7 · market South Carolina -2.5 · difference +4.2 pts (South Carolina view)
- Total
- model 52.3 · market 53 · difference -0.7
Model margin is 4.2 pts more toward South Carolina than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Kentucky 22.8, South Carolina 29.5 | South Carolina 67%wrong winner | 7.7 | 16.7 |
| New formula | Kentucky 22.5, South Carolina 30.6 | South Carolina 70%wrong winner | 9.1 | 16.0 |
Final: Kentucky 35, South Carolina 34. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Kentucky vs South Carolina: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Kentucky | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.5#51 | 38.5#30 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.0#88 | 24.8#84 |
| Yards per play | 7.18#20 | 6.82#35 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.17#52 | 5.48#72 |
| Rushing yards per game | 215.3#29 | 260.8#12 |
| Net passing yards per game | 217.5#84 | 228.3#68 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 139.0#61 | 103.0#17 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 228.0#92 | 208.0#76 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#29 | 1.25#96 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50#17 | 0.50#109 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25#47 | 2.50#35 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#87 | 1.50#55 |
| Stat | Kentucky | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.14#52 | +0.14#55 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#79 | +0.11#104 |
| Success rate | 50.9%#13 | 43.2%#71 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.4%#98 | 38.2%#42 |
| Explosive play rate | 17.7%#6 | 13.7%#57 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.6%#25 | 13.1%#99 |
| Havoc rate | 14.1%#72 | 15.2%#50 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.4%#34 | 11.5%#36 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.09#12 | 4.54#41 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.58#53 | 5.86#138 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#53 | own 26#125 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#102 | own 28#72 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.3#110 | 71.8#17 |
| Stat | Kentucky | South Carolina |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.18#22 | +0.30#3 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10#67 | -0.03#109 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.15#123 | -0.13#13 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03#49 | +0.29#125 |
| Rushing success rate | 55.1%#6 | 47.9%#39 |
| Passing success rate | 46.1%#47 | 38.5%#102 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.4%#35 | 13.5%#29 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.0%#65 | 23.4%#129 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.2%#131 | 33.3%#107 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 25.6%#137 | 42.6%#65 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.6%#117 | 35.3%#50 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 76.5%#18 | 63.9%#75 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.8%#107 | 77.4%#121 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kentucky schedule · South Carolina schedule · all Week 5 projections
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