Matchup analysis
Our model projects Kentucky 29, Louisville 28 at Kroger Field in Week 13. That is a genuine toss-up: Kentucky wins about 52% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.8 points and 57.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Louisville is 4-3 against the 17th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 38.7 and allowing 27.4 points per game (+11.3 per game). Kentucky (No. 9) is 7-1 against the 4th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.9 and allowing 24.8 points per game (+8.1 per game).
Louisville's strong offense (20th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 33.7 points against an average defense) meets Kentucky's strong defense (33rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Louisville puts up. Kentucky's strong offense (35th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31 points against an average defense) meets Louisville's middle-of-the-pack defense (48th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Kentucky puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Louisville by 22 and Kentucky by 23 about 80% of the time.
Kentucky gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Louisville would be favoured by 1.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Louisville vs Kentucky: stat comparison
| Stat | Louisville | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.7#11 | 32.9#42 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.4#99 | 24.8#75 |
| Yards per play | 7.85#1 | 6.25#52 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.68#73 | 5.57#65 |
| Rushing yards per game | 227.6#13 | 178.5#57 |
| Net passing yards per game | 257.9#37 | 217.1#79 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 163.0#88 | 127.3#32 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 257.3#125 | 255.4#123 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57#38 | 0.25#4 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.29#25 | 1.75#7 |
| Sacks per game | 2.43#44 | 2.63#21 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.00#84 | 2.13#87 |
| Stat | Louisville | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.29#4 | +0.12#49 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10#102 | +0.05#71 |
| Success rate | 48.9%#19 | 48.9%#18 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9%#81 | 44.5%#111 |
| Explosive play rate | 18.5%#1 | 13.4%#56 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9%#46 | 10.9%#41 |
| Havoc rate | 13.7%#72 | 15.4%#33 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.6%#122 | 11.1%#26 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.74#25 | 4.65#30 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.74#62 | 3.83#72 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#81 | own 32#18 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#64 | own 29#78 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.9#109 | 63.3#94 |
| Stat | Louisville | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.27#2 | +0.16#26 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.31#12 | +0.09#71 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03#67 | +0.09#96 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17#110 | +0.03#60 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.8%#23 | 51.9%#7 |
| Passing success rate | 49.0%#20 | 45.9%#36 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.9%#129 | 16.0%#47 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.6%#41 | 30.8%#74 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.1%#112 | 44.4%#138 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.0%#36 | 34.8%#116 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.0%#34 | 50.4%#133 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 75.0%#13 | 65.8%#45 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.1%#28 | 63.3%#90 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Louisville schedule · Kentucky schedule · all Week 13 projections
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