Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Kentucky 34.6, South Alabama 21.4 at Kroger Field in Week 4. That is a solid edge: Kentucky wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.2 points and 56 combined points.
South Alabama is 2-1, scoring 34.7 and allowing 26 points per game (+8.7 per game). Kentucky is 2-1, scoring 31 and allowing 26.3 points per game (+4.7 per game).
Kentucky's middle-of-the-pack defense (45th) should limit South Alabama's middle-of-the-pack offense (69th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.4 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Kentucky's middle-of-the-pack offense (59th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.8 points against an average defense) against South Alabama's below-average defense (111th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between South Alabama by 9 and Kentucky by 36 about 80% of the time.
Kentucky gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Kentucky by about 11.1. The game is on SEC Network.
Result: South Alabama 21, Kentucky 45. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 10.8 points and the total by 10.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (South Alabama / Kentucky) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Kentucky -20.25 → Kentucky -20.5 | 55.25 → 54.25 | +850 / -1600 |
| Bovada | Kentucky -21 → Kentucky -20.5 | 55 → 54 | +800 / -1600 |
| DraftKings | Kentucky -19.5 → Kentucky -20.5 | 55.5 → 54.5 | +900 / -1600 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Kentucky win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Kentucky -13 | 56.0 | 81% |
| Market consensus | Kentucky -20.5 | 54.3 | 90% |
| Blended projection | Kentucky -19.5 | 54.8 | 91% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Kentucky win probability
- model 81% · market (no-vig) 90% · difference -9 pts
- Margin
- model Kentucky -13.2 · market Kentucky -20.5 · difference -7.3 pts (Kentucky view)
- Total
- model 56.0 · market 54.25 · difference +1.8
Model margin is 7.3 pts more toward South Alabama than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | South Alabama 21.4, Kentucky 34.6 | Kentucky 81%right winner | 10.8 | 10.0 |
| New formula | South Alabama 21.8, Kentucky 34.8 | Kentucky 80%right winner | 11.1 | 9.4 |
Final: South Alabama 21, Kentucky 45. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
South Alabama vs Kentucky: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | South Alabama | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 34.7#56 | 31.0#75 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.0#98 | 26.3#101 |
| Yards per play | 5.93#92 | 6.67#51 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.52#132 | 5.14#57 |
| Rushing yards per game | 240.3#23 | 154.0#92 |
| Net passing yards per game | 204.7#89 | 233.0#67 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 152.0#85 | 147.3#80 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 211.7#80 | 214.3#84 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00#11 | 0.67#47 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00#67 | 1.67#13 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67#83 | 2.00#52 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.67#24 | 2.00#93 |
| Stat | South Alabama | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12#59 | +0.04#94 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.26#132 | +0.09#101 |
| Success rate | 42.2%#88 | 47.2%#30 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.8%#96 | 45.9%#118 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.3%#89 | 17.0%#11 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.5%#120 | 9.2%#21 |
| Havoc rate | 16.6%#25 | 15.8%#43 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4%#60 | 13.8%#84 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.28#68 | 5.27#9 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.36#104 | 3.60#49 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#45 | own 29#84 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#93 | own 31#98 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.0#10 | 58.0#121 |
| Stat | South Alabama | Kentucky |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#97 | -0.07#124 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28#24 | +0.16#56 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.21#133 | +0.19#125 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.30#126 | +0.01#65 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.6%#93 | 48.8%#37 |
| Passing success rate | 45.0%#62 | 45.3%#56 |
| Run stuff rate | 14.0%#32 | 17.2%#79 |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.4%#55 | 29.3%#89 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.0%#109 | 41.1%#130 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 53.2%#20 | 25.8%#133 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.8%#109 | 52.4%#130 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.7%#100 | 72.7%#31 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 80.3%#125 | 75.0%#115 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: South Alabama schedule · Kentucky schedule · all Week 4 projections
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