Matchup analysis
Our model projects Tennessee 32, Kentucky 21 at Neyland Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Tennessee wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.2 points and 53.4 combined points.
Kentucky (No. 9) is 7-1 against the 4th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.9 and allowing 24.8 points per game (+8.1 per game). Tennessee (No. 16) is 6-2 against the 25th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.3 and allowing 16.3 points per game (+16 per game).
Expect Kentucky to find it hard going: Tennessee's elite defense (12th) outranks Kentucky's strong offense (35th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31 points against an average defense). Tennessee's elite offense (10th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 35.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Kentucky's strong defense (33rd); that mismatch is where most of Tennessee's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kentucky by 11 and Tennessee by 34 about 80% of the time.
Tennessee gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Tennessee by about 9.1. The game is on ESPN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Kentucky vs Tennessee: stat comparison
| Stat | Kentucky | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.9#42 | 32.3#46 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.8#75 | 16.3#20 |
| Yards per play | 6.25#52 | 5.83#86 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.57#65 | 5.00#24 |
| Rushing yards per game | 178.5#57 | 227.8#12 |
| Net passing yards per game | 217.1#79 | 172.0#120 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 127.3#32 | 148.4#63 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 255.4#123 | 155.5#9 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.25#4 | 0.63#39 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.75#7 | 1.25#27 |
| Sacks per game | 2.63#21 | 4.25#1 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.13#87 | 2.50#113 |
| Stat | Kentucky | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12#49 | +0.05#87 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05#71 | -0.11#11 |
| Success rate | 48.9%#18 | 44.4%#51 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.5%#111 | 38.8%#38 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.4%#56 | 11.1%#109 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.9%#41 | 10.2%#24 |
| Havoc rate | 15.4%#33 | 19.5%#2 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.1%#26 | 12.8%#53 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.65#30 | 4.70#27 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.83#72 | 3.16#14 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#18 | own 30#57 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#78 | own 28#56 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.3#94 | 68.6#40 |
| Stat | Kentucky | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.16#26 | +0.19#12 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09#71 | -0.15#133 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09#96 | +0.08#95 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.03#60 | -0.25#3 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.9%#7 | 48.2%#28 |
| Passing success rate | 45.9%#36 | 39.0%#99 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.0%#47 | 13.0%#13 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.8%#74 | 25.4%#122 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 44.4%#138 | 25.5%#20 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.8%#116 | 38.7%#92 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 50.4%#133 | 32.0%#14 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.8%#45 | 73.1%#20 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 63.3%#90 | 50.0%#33 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kentucky schedule · Tennessee schedule · all Week 10 projections
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