2026 schedule

Tennessee Volunteers

6-2SOS #34

2026 season so far

Tennessee (No. 16) is 6-2 against the 34th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.3 and allowing 16.3 points per game (+16 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Tennessee ranks 10th of 139 FBS teams overall — 10th on offense and 12th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.

Next up: vs Kentucky in Week 10. We project Tennessee 32, Kentucky 21 — Tennessee wins 77% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

vs
Furman Paladins
1-1 · SOS #28
Win 56-9
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Tennessee by 40.4
Total 62.8
DraftKings
TENN -49.5
Total 66.5
Final Tennessee by 47. Furman beat the spread. 65 points — under the 66.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tennessee -49.25 (open Tennessee -47.25) · O/U 66.5 · model vs market -8.8 pts (Tennessee view)
SECN+ Neyland Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missed
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: missed (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
at
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
0-2 · SOS #69
Win 45-24
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Georgia Tech by 1.8
Total 58.8
DraftKings
TENN -12.5
Total 55.5
Final Tennessee by 21. Tennessee beat the spread. 69 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tennessee -12.5 (open Tennessee -11) · O/U 55.5 (open 55) · ML -517.5 / +380 · Georgia Tech 20% no-vig · model vs market +14.3 pts, +35 pct pts (Georgia Tech view)
ESPN Bobby Dodd Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
vs
Kennesaw State Owls
1-2 · SOS #88
Win 42-9
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Tennessee by 11.7
Total 56.7
DraftKings
TENN -35.5
Total 60.5
Final Tennessee by 33. Kennesaw State beat the spread. 51 points — under the 60.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tennessee -35.5 (open Tennessee -35) · O/U 60.75 (open 59.75) · ML +2200 / -8000 · Tennessee 96% no-vig · model vs market -23.8 pts, -18 pct pts (Tennessee view)
SECN+ Neyland Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
vs
#1 Texas Longhorns
4-0 · SOS #1
Loss 17-20
Week 4
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 57.4
DraftKings
TEX -5.5
Total 54.5
Final Texas by 3. Tennessee beat the spread. 37 points — under the 54.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Texas -5.5 (open Texas -5) · O/U 54.5 (open 56.25) · ML -192.5 / +162.5 · Tennessee 37% no-vig · model vs market +5.9 pts, +14 pct pts (Tennessee view)
ABC Neyland Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
F. Brandon QB · Low rush yds 38 (avg 46) · 69% · 2 ✓
vs
Auburn Tigers
3-2 · SOS #4
Win 24-14
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Tennessee by 15.1
Total 54.7
DraftKings
TENN -6
Total 54.5
Final Tennessee by 10. Tennessee beat the spread. 38 points — under the 54.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tennessee -6.25 (open Tennessee -7.5) · O/U 54.25 (open 56) · ML +215 / -260 · Tennessee 69% no-vig · model vs market +8.8 pts, +15 pct pts (Tennessee view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 75°F, Wind 5 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTYS)
ESPN Neyland Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game
B. Brown QB · Low rush yds 45 (avg 59) · 72% · 107 ✗O. Mabson II RB · Low rush yds 44 (avg 50) · 69% · 62 ✗F. Brandon QB · High pass yds 196 (avg 174) · 54% · 0 ✗
at
Arkansas Razorbacks
2-4 · SOS #20
Win 24-17
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Tennessee by 16.9
Total 55.3
DraftKings
TENN -13.5
Total 51.5
Final Tennessee by 7. Arkansas beat the spread. 41 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tennessee -13.75 (open Tennessee -13.5) · O/U 51.5 (open 50.75) · ML -580 / +417.5 · Arkansas 18% no-vig · model vs market -3.2 pts, -5 pct pts (Arkansas view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 88°F, Wind 3 mph SSW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KFYV)
SEC Network Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · B. Russell RB · Low rush yds 32 (avg 27) · 75% · 18 ✓Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · S. Smith RB · Low rush yds 30 (avg 25) · 75% · 40 ✗D. Bishop RB · TD threat 72% · 1 ✓
vs
#6 Alabama Crimson Tide
5-2 · SOS #3
Win 26-10
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Alabama by 7.9
Total 58.5
DraftKings
ALA -7.5
Total 50.5
Final Tennessee by 16. Tennessee beat the spread. 36 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Alabama -7.75 (open Alabama -4.25) · O/U 50.75 (open 55) · ML -285 / +232.5 · Tennessee 29% no-vig · model vs market -0.2 pts, +1 pct pts (Tennessee view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 57°F, Wind 10 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTYS)
ABC Neyland Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: hit (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game
at
South Carolina Gamecocks
4-3 · SOS #21
Loss 24-27
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Tennessee by 4.2
Total 55.6
DraftKings
SC -2.5
Total 50.5
Final South Carolina by 3. South Carolina beat the spread. 51 points — over the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Carolina -2.5 · O/U 50.5 · ML +110 / -135 · South Carolina 53% no-vig · model vs market -6.7 pts, -14 pct pts (South Carolina view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 7 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCUB)
ESPN/Disney+ Williams-Brice Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: hit
Bend-don't-break dog vs fast visitor over2026 combo · Held up Over: Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 4 misses (86% hit rate) over 29 graded gamesAway team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: hit (n=29; wk 5–7 12-1) · Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank
D. Morris RB · Low rush yds 39 (avg 49) · 69% · 5 ✓
vs
#9 Kentucky Wildcats
7-1 · SOS #8
Sat, Nov 7, 11:15 PM
Week 10
Proj 32-21 · 77%
Our number
Tennessee by 11
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN Neyland Stadium
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · J. Patterson RB · Low rush yds 47 (avg 55) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · C. Baxter RB · Low rush yds 57 (avg 70) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · J. Barnes RB · Low rush yds 35 (avg 37) · 78%
at
Texas A&M Aggies
4-4 · SOS #27
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 25-24 · 53%
Our number
Tennessee by 1
Total 49
DraftKings
TA&M -8.5
Total 55.5
We're 9.5 points higher on Tennessee than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Texas A&M -8.5 · O/U 55.5 · ML +285 / -360 · Texas A&M 75% no-vig · model vs market -9.5 pts, -28 pct pts (Texas A&M view)
Kyle Field
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded games · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49%
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded games (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
Bend-don't-break dog vs fast visitor over2026 combo · Held up Over: Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 4 misses (86% hit rate) over 29 graded games (n=29; wk 5–7 12-1) · Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank
D. Bishop RB · TD threat 68%
vs
#15 LSU Tigers
6-2 · SOS #23
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 26-27 · 49%
Our number
LSU by 1
Total 53
DraftKings
LSU -1.5
Total 57.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: LSU -1.5 · O/U 57.5 · ML -120 / +100 · Tennessee 48% no-vig · model vs market +0.5 pts, +1 pct pts (Tennessee view)
Neyland Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
High-scoring pick'em dogStudy · Moderate Underdog wins: Spread 3 or less, FBS v FBS, underdog implied 28+: Record 87 hits, 52 misses (63% hit rate) over 139 graded games (n=139) · Spread 3 or less, FBS v FBS, underdog implied 28+High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded games (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
Bend-don't-break dog vs fast visitor over2026 combo · Held up Over: Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 4 misses (86% hit rate) over 29 graded games (n=29; wk 5–7 12-1) · Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank
D. Morris RB · Low rush yds 35 (avg 44) · 69%
at
Vanderbilt Commodores
3-5 · SOS #18
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 34-19 · 84%
Our number
Tennessee by 15
Total 53
DraftKings
TENN -3
Total 57.5
We're 12 points higher on Tennessee than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Tennessee -3 · O/U 57.5 · ML -162 / +136 · Vanderbilt 41% no-vig · model vs market -12.0 pts, -25 pct pts (Vanderbilt view)
FirstBank Stadium
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded games · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49%
Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded games (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded games (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
D. Bishop RB · TD threat 75%

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Tennessee Volunteers stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

+18.3

10th in FBS

Adj. offense

35.7

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

17.4

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	32.3	46 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	16.3	20 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	5.83	86 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.00	24 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	227.8	12 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	172.0	120 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	148.4	63 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	155.5	9 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.63	39 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	1.25	27 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	4.25	1 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	2.50	113 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.05	87 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	-0.11	11 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	44.4%	51 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	38.8%	38 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	11.1%	109 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	10.2%	24 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	19.5%	2 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	12.8%	53 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	4.70	27 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.16	14 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 30	57 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 28	56 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	68.6	40 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.19	12 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	-0.15	133 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.08	95 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	-0.25	3 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	48.2%	28 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	39.0%	99 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	13.0%	13 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	25.4%	122 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	25.5%	20 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	38.7%	92 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	32.0%	14 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	73.1%	20 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	50.0%	33 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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