Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tennessee 34.2, Kennesaw State 22.5 at Neyland Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Tennessee wins about 78% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.7 points and 56.6 combined points.
Kennesaw State is 1-1, scoring 32 and allowing 15.5 points per game (+16.5 per game). Tennessee (No. 15) is 2-0, scoring 50.5 and allowing 16.5 points per game (+34 per game).
Tennessee's strong defense (17th) should limit Kennesaw State's struggling offense (125th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 20.2 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: Tennessee's elite offense (4th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 41.3 points against an average defense) against Kennesaw State's below-average defense (115th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Kennesaw State by 11 and Tennessee by 34 about 80% of the time.
Tennessee gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Tennessee by about 9.6. The game is on SECN+.
Result: Kennesaw State 9, Tennessee 42. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 21.3 points and the total by 5.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Kennesaw State / Tennessee) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Tennessee -35 → Tennessee -35.5 | 59.75 → 60.75 | +2200 / -8000 |
| DraftKings | Tennessee -34.5 → Tennessee -35.5 | 59.5 → 60.5 | +2200 / -8000 |
| Bovada | Tennessee -35.5 | 60 → 61 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Tennessee win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tennessee -11.5 | 56.6 | 78% |
| Market consensus | Tennessee -35.5 | 60.8 | 96% |
| Blended projection | Tennessee -32 | 60.5 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Tennessee win probability
- model 78% · market (no-vig) 96% · difference -18 pts
- Margin
- model Tennessee -11.7 · market Tennessee -35.5 · difference -23.8 pts (Tennessee view)
- Total
- model 56.6 · market 60.75 · difference -4.1
Model margin is 23.8 pts more toward Kennesaw State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Kennesaw State 22.5, Tennessee 34.2 | Tennessee 78%right winner | 21.3 | 5.6 |
| New formula | Kennesaw State 10.3, Tennessee 49.8 | Tennessee 99%right winner | 6.5 | 9.1 |
Final: Kennesaw State 9, Tennessee 42. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Kennesaw State vs Tennessee: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Kennesaw State | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.0#66 | 50.5#13 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.5#47 | 16.5#49 |
| Yards per play | 6.58#55 | 7.85#17 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.31#70 | 4.98#53 |
| Rushing yards per game | 195.0#58 | 317.5#6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 249.0#54 | 224.0#75 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 136.5#79 | 186.0#113 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 176.5#54 | 133.0#21 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#90 | 0.00#2 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#105 | 1.00#53 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00#116 | 5.00#4 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.00#49 | 1.00#37 |
| Stat | Kennesaw State | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.16#30 | +0.20#18 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.04#78 | -0.05#38 |
| Success rate | 45.3%#47 | 45.1%#50 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4%#72 | 40.0%#65 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.7%#52 | 15.5%#25 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.6%#110 | 12.1%#86 |
| Havoc rate | 11.5%#113 | 18.3%#20 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.9%#48 | 13.8%#82 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.17#71 | 5.11#17 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.24#100 | 3.11#22 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#76 | own 32#56 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#28 | own 28#60 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.5#58 | 69.0#40 |
| Stat | Kennesaw State | Tennessee |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.24#11 | +0.19#20 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09#73 | +0.20#40 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02#61 | +0.10#105 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.13#100 | -0.17#18 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.1%#36 | 50.0%#41 |
| Passing success rate | 48.2%#48 | 41.0%#87 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.2%#110 | 14.5%#31 |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.2%#100 | 35.5%#33 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.8%#88 | 27.1%#53 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.5%#66 | 54.2%#23 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 24.0%#17 | 40.7%#90 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 74.5%#33 | 73.3%#36 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.6%#104 | 49.0%#36 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Kennesaw State schedule · Tennessee schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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