Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Georgia Tech 30.3, Tennessee 28.5 at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Week 2. That is a genuine toss-up: Georgia Tech wins about 55% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.8 points and 58.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Tennessee (No. 18) is 1-0, scoring 56 and allowing 9 points per game (+47 per game). Georgia Tech is 0-1, scoring 13 and allowing 14 points per game (-1 per game).
Tennessee's elite offense (7th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 39.5 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Georgia Tech's middle-of-the-pack defense (52nd); that mismatch is where most of Tennessee's projected points come from. Expect Georgia Tech to find it hard going: Tennessee's strong defense (18th) outranks Georgia Tech's middle-of-the-pack offense (68th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.2 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tennessee by 21 and Georgia Tech by 24 about 80% of the time.
Georgia Tech gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Tennessee would be favoured by 0.3. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Tennessee 45, Georgia Tech 24. Tennessee won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 22.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Tennessee / Georgia Tech) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Tennessee -11 → Tennessee -12.5 | 55 → 55.5 | -517.5 / +380 |
| Bovada | Tennessee -13.5 → Tennessee -12.5 | 55 → 55.5 | -550 / +390 |
| DraftKings | Tennessee -8.5 → Tennessee -12.5 | 55.5 | -485 / +370 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Georgia Tech win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Georgia Tech -2 | 58.8 | 55% |
| Market consensus | Tennessee -12.5 | 55.5 | 20% |
| Blended projection | Tennessee -10 | 56.1 | 24% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Georgia Tech win probability
- model 55% · market (no-vig) 20% · difference +35 pts
- Margin
- model Georgia Tech -1.8 · market Tennessee -12.5 · difference +14.3 pts (Georgia Tech view)
- Total
- model 58.8 · market 55.5 · difference +3.3
Model margin is 14.3 pts more toward Georgia Tech than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Tennessee 28.5, Georgia Tech 30.3 | Georgia Tech 55%wrong winner | 22.8 | 10.2 |
| New formula | Tennessee 34.5, Georgia Tech 22.9 | Tennessee 76%right winner | 9.4 | 11.6 |
Final: Tennessee 45, Georgia Tech 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Tennessee vs Georgia Tech: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Tennessee | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 39.8#6 | 32.2#27 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.8#91 | 25.0#70 |
| Yards per play | 6.90#14 | 7.16#7 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.89#76 | 6.10#100 |
| Rushing yards per game | 185.4#46 | 194.2#32 |
| Net passing yards per game | 305.2#5 | 272.8#21 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 172.2#84 | 165.7#76 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 243.1#110 | 226.3#88 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#63 | 1.08#83 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.31#33 | 0.38#136 |
| Sacks per game | 2.54#25 | 1.85#83 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.69#58 | 0.77#6 |
| Stat | Tennessee | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17#10 | +0.15#18 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06#96 | +0.08#112 |
| Success rate | 50.8%#5 | 50.1%#6 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.1%#98 | 43.7%#95 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.7%#17 | 15.3%#11 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.2%#95 | 13.2%#100 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4%#46 | 10.2%#124 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.2%#6 | 8.5%#3 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.75#11 | 4.49#21 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.19#106 | 4.30#113 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#74 | own 29#98 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#38 | own 28#26 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.1#19 | 65.2#83 |
| Stat | Tennessee | Georgia Tech |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#14 | +0.09#29 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.19#17 | +0.21#12 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.11#124 | +0.05#98 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#71 | +0.12#109 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.1%#4 | 51.7%#5 |
| Passing success rate | 49.4%#9 | 48.4%#12 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.4%#8 | 15.6%#27 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.4%#23 | 37.8%#11 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 26.9%#24 | 27.6%#35 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.9%#8 | 48.7%#14 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.0%#85 | 40.6%#72 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 72.1%#17 | 58.5%#87 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 71.1%#125 | 57.4%#50 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tennessee schedule · Georgia Tech schedule · all Week 2 projections
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