Matchup analysis
Our model projects Tennessee 34, Vanderbilt 19 at FirstBank Stadium in Week 13. That is a solid edge: Tennessee wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 15.2 points and 53 combined points.
Tennessee (No. 16) is 6-2 against the 34th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.3 and allowing 16.3 points per game (+16 per game). Vanderbilt is 3-5 against the 18th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.8 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-7.5 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Tennessee's elite offense (10th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 35.7 points against an average defense) against Vanderbilt's middle-of-the-pack defense (65th). Tennessee's elite defense (12th) should limit Vanderbilt's middle-of-the-pack offense (62nd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.4 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tennessee by 38 and Vanderbilt by 7 about 80% of the time.
Vanderbilt gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Tennessee is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Tennessee / Vanderbilt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Tennessee -3 | 57.5 | -162 / +136 |
| DraftKings | Tennessee -3 | 57.5 | -162 / +136 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Vanderbilt win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tennessee -15 | 53.0 | 16% |
| Market consensus | Tennessee -3 | 57.5 | 41% |
| Blended projection | Tennessee -5 | 57.5 | 37% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Vanderbilt win probability
- model 16% · market (no-vig) 41% · difference -25 pts
- Margin
- model Tennessee -15.2 · market Tennessee -3 · difference -12.2 pts (Vanderbilt view)
- Total
- model 53.0 · market 57.5 · difference -4.5
Model margin is 12.2 pts more toward Tennessee than the market.
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Tennessee vs Vanderbilt: stat comparison
| Stat | Tennessee | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.3#46 | 22.8#106 |
| Points allowed per game | 16.3#20 | 30.3#113 |
| Yards per play | 5.83#86 | 5.68#96 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.00#24 | 5.72#80 |
| Rushing yards per game | 227.8#12 | 116.9#130 |
| Net passing yards per game | 172.0#120 | 233.8#58 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 148.4#63 | 162.9#85 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 155.5#9 | 204.4#62 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.63#39 | 1.25#117 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25#27 | 0.75#84 |
| Sacks per game | 4.25#1 | 2.00#67 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50#113 | 1.75#62 |
| Stat | Tennessee | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05#87 | +0.10#61 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.11#11 | +0.13#113 |
| Success rate | 44.4%#51 | 41.3%#94 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.8%#38 | 45.3%#123 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.1%#109 | 12.4%#73 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.2%#24 | 11.7%#69 |
| Havoc rate | 19.5%#2 | 11.5%#119 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.8%#53 | 13.5%#74 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.70#27 | 3.95#85 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.16#14 | 4.68#126 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#57 | own 28#99 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#56 | own 27#35 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.6#40 | 61.8#111 |
| Stat | Tennessee | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.19#12 | +0.07#74 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.15#133 | +0.12#59 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08#95 | +0.11#106 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.25#3 | +0.14#99 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.2%#28 | 39.4%#109 |
| Passing success rate | 39.0%#99 | 43.0%#58 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.0%#13 | 17.2%#73 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.4%#122 | 29.7%#96 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.5%#20 | 31.1%#92 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.7%#92 | 41.5%#68 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.0%#14 | 43.0%#111 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 73.1%#20 | 69.6%#35 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 50.0%#33 | 70.4%#121 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tennessee schedule · Vanderbilt schedule · all Week 13 projections
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