2026 schedule
Vanderbilt Commodores
2026 season so far
Vanderbilt is 3-5 against the 16th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 22.8 and allowing 30.3 points per game (-7.5 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Vanderbilt ranks 63rd of 139 FBS teams overall — 62nd on offense and 64th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.
Next up: at Mississippi State in Week 10. We project Vanderbilt 27, Mississippi State 32 — Vanderbilt wins 35% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- vs
Austin Peay Governors
1-1 · SOS #76
Win 28-9
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Vanderbilt by 35.4
Total 65.8
DraftKings
VAN -29.5
Total 57.5
Final Vanderbilt by 19. Austin Peay beat the spread. 37 points — under the 57.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Vanderbilt -29.25 (open Vanderbilt -29.75) · O/U 58.25 (open 61) · ML +1662.5 / -6250 · Vanderbilt 94% no-vig · model vs market +6.2 pts, +5 pct pts (Vanderbilt view)
SECN+ FirstBank Stadium - vs
Delaware Blue Hens
1-1 · SOS #116
Win 35-26
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Vanderbilt by 14.9
Total 57.9
DraftKings
VAN -20.5
Total 54.5
Final Vanderbilt by 9. Delaware beat the spread. 61 points — over the 54.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Vanderbilt -20.75 (open Vanderbilt -21.25) · O/U 54.5 · ML +825 / -1575 · Vanderbilt 90% no-vig · model vs market -5.9 pts, -6 pct pts (Vanderbilt view)
SEC Network FirstBank Stadium - vs
NC State Wolfpack
1-2 · SOS #67
Win 35-31
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Vanderbilt by 4.4
Total 51.2
DraftKings
VAN -3
Total 50.5
Final Vanderbilt by 4. Vanderbilt beat the spread. 66 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Vanderbilt -3 (open Vanderbilt -4) · O/U 50.5 (open 53.5) · ML +145 / -170 · Vanderbilt 61% no-vig · model vs market +1.4 pts, +1 pct pts (Vanderbilt view)
SEC Network FirstBank Stadium - at
Auburn Tigers
3-1 · SOS #3
Loss 15-21
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Auburn by 1.5
Total 53.7
DraftKings
AUB -10
Total 54.5
Final Auburn by 6. Vanderbilt beat the spread. 36 points — under the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Auburn -10 (open Auburn -9) · O/U 54.5 (open 52.5) · ML +295 / -377.5 · Auburn 76% no-vig · model vs market -8.5 pts, -22 pct pts (Auburn view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 81°F, Wind 8 mph NW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KAUO)SEC Network Jordan-Hare Stadium - at
#2 Georgia Bulldogs
5-0 · SOS #48
Loss 14-38
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Georgia by 23.6
Total 58.8
DraftKings
UGA -25.5
Total 49.5
Final Georgia by 24. Vanderbilt beat the spread. 52 points — over the 49.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Georgia -25.5 (open Georgia -24.25) · O/U 50.25 (open 55) · ML +1250 / -3350 · Georgia 93% no-vig · model vs market -1.9 pts, +1 pct pts (Georgia view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 82°F, Wind 3 mph WNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KAHN)SEC Network Sanford Stadium - vs
#9 Ole Miss Rebels
4-1 · SOS #6
Loss 17-52
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Ole Miss by 0.6
Total 58.6
DraftKings
MISS -9.5
Total 54.5
Final Ole Miss by 35. Ole Miss beat the spread. 69 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Ole Miss -9.25 (open Ole Miss -10) · O/U 54.25 (open 58.75) · ML -382.5 / +292.5 · Vanderbilt 24% no-vig · model vs market +8.6 pts, +24 pct pts (Vanderbilt view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 64°F, Wind 11 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBNA)ESPN/Disney+ FirstBank Stadium - vs
Arkansas Razorbacks
3-4 · SOS #9
Loss 21-31
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Vanderbilt by 7.1
Total 51.9
DraftKings
VAN -5.5
Total 48.5
Final Arkansas by 10. Arkansas beat the spread. 52 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Vanderbilt -5.75 (open Vanderbilt -6.5) · O/U 48.75 (open 50.5) · ML +190 / -230 · Vanderbilt 67% no-vig · model vs market +1.4 pts, +1 pct pts (Vanderbilt view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 54°F, Wind 8 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBNA)ESPN2 FirstBank Stadium - at
#12 Kentucky Wildcats
7-1 · SOS #4
Loss 17-34
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Kentucky by 8.9
Total 54.9
DraftKings
UK -9.5
Total 51.5
Final Kentucky by 17. Kentucky beat the spread. 51 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Kentucky -10 · O/U 51.5 · ML +330 / -450 · Kentucky 78% no-vig · model vs market -1.1 pts, -6 pct pts (Kentucky view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 57°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLEX)SEC Network Kroger Field - at
Mississippi State Bulldogs
4-3 · SOS #5
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Week 10
Proj 27-32 · 35%
Our number
Mississippi State by 5
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Davis Wade Stadium - vs
#10 Alabama Crimson Tide
6-2 · SOS #2
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 18-38 · 9%
Our number
Alabama by 20
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
FirstBank Stadium - at
#17 Florida Gators
5-2 · SOS #11
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 23-36 · 20%
Our number
Florida by 13
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium - vs
#16 Tennessee Volunteers
6-2 · SOS #30
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 19-34 · 17%
Our number
Tennessee by 15
Total 53
DraftKings
TENN -3
Total 57.5
We're 12 points higher on Tennessee than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Tennessee -3 · O/U 57.5 · ML -162 / +136 · Vanderbilt 41% no-vig · model vs market -12.0 pts, -24 pct pts (Vanderbilt view)
FirstBank Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Vanderbilt Commodores stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+0.8
63rd in FBS
Adj. offense
27.4
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
26.6
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 22.8 | 106 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 30.3 | 113 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.68 | 96 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.72 | 80 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 116.9 | 130 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 233.8 | 58 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 162.9 | 85 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 204.4 | 62 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.25 | 117 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.75 | 84 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.00 | 67 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.75 | 62 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.10 | 61 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.13 | 113 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 41.3% | 94 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 45.3% | 123 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.4% | 73 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 11.7% | 69 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 11.5% | 119 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.5% | 74 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.95 | 85 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.68 | 126 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 28 | 99 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 27 | 35 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 61.8 | 111 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.07 | 74 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.12 | 59 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.11 | 106 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.14 | 99 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 39.4% | 109 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 43.0% | 58 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 17.2% | 73 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 29.7% | 96 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 31.1% | 92 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 41.5% | 68 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 43.0% | 111 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 69.6% | 35 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 70.4% | 121 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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