Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Auburn 27.6, Vanderbilt 26.1 at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Auburn wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.5 points and 53.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Vanderbilt is 3-0, scoring 32.7 and allowing 22 points per game (+10.7 per game). Auburn is 2-1, scoring 33 and allowing 22.7 points per game (+10.3 per game).
Vanderbilt's strong offense (31st of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Auburn's middle-of-the-pack defense (46th); that mismatch is where most of Vanderbilt's projected points come from. Expect Auburn to find it hard going: Vanderbilt's strong defense (40th) outranks Auburn's middle-of-the-pack offense (58th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Vanderbilt by 21 and Auburn by 24 about 80% of the time.
Auburn gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Vanderbilt would be favoured by 0.6. The game is on SEC Network.
Result: Vanderbilt 15, Auburn 21. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.5 points and the total by 17.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Vanderbilt / Auburn) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Auburn -9 → Auburn -10 | 52.5 → 54.5 | +295 / -377.5 |
| DraftKings | Auburn -8.5 → Auburn -10 | 50.5 → 54.5 | +310 / -395 |
| Bovada | Auburn -9.5 → Auburn -10 | 54.5 | +280 / -360 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Auburn win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Auburn -1.5 | 53.6 | 54% |
| Market consensus | Auburn -10 | 54.5 | 76% |
| Blended projection | Auburn -8.5 | 54.9 | 72% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Auburn win probability
- model 54% · market (no-vig) 76% · difference -22 pts
- Margin
- model Auburn -1.5 · market Auburn -10 · difference -8.5 pts (Auburn view)
- Total
- model 53.6 · market 54.5 · difference -0.9
Model margin is 8.5 pts more toward Vanderbilt than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Vanderbilt 26.1, Auburn 27.6 | Auburn 54%right winner | 4.5 | 17.6 |
| New formula | Vanderbilt 26.6, Auburn 26.8 | Auburn 51%right winner | 5.8 | 17.4 |
Final: Vanderbilt 15, Auburn 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Vanderbilt vs Auburn: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Vanderbilt | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.7#62 | 33.0#60 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.0#69 | 22.7#71 |
| Yards per play | 6.22#72 | 6.05#79 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.11#54 | 5.30#66 |
| Rushing yards per game | 143.0#104 | 204.7#42 |
| Net passing yards per game | 238.7#60 | 245.0#55 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 140.0#69 | 146.3#77 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 182.0#55 | 256.7#120 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67#49 | 1.33#105 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.33#30 | 1.33#27 |
| Sacks per game | 4.00#5 | 2.00#51 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.67#12 | 4.33#138 |
| Stat | Vanderbilt | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.22#21 | +0.12#57 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01#50 | +0.04#74 |
| Success rate | 45.1%#48 | 44.4%#62 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.5%#28 | 39.0%#57 |
| Explosive play rate | 13.6%#55 | 15.0%#29 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.1%#60 | 8.9%#17 |
| Havoc rate | 16.4%#28 | 15.5%#46 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.3%#22 | 15.9%#117 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.31#61 | 4.14#83 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.64#53 | 3.81#65 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#70 | own 30#75 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 25#20 | own 27#35 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 61.3#105 | 74.3#11 |
| Stat | Vanderbilt | Auburn |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.20#19 | +0.14#39 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.24#40 | +0.10#74 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08#103 | -0.07#30 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.09#30 | +0.15#102 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.5%#88 | 45.8%#65 |
| Passing success rate | 46.7%#48 | 43.2%#75 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.0%#20 | 15.0%#44 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.8%#79 | 37.5%#25 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.6%#24 | 33.3%#106 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.8%#109 | 48.9%#35 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 26.8%#15 | 40.0%#82 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 75.0%#24 | 66.7%#57 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 33.3%#10 | 60.0%#71 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Vanderbilt schedule · Auburn schedule · all Week 4 projections
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