Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Vanderbilt 36.4, Delaware 21.5 at FirstBank Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Vanderbilt wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.9 points and 57.9 combined points.
Delaware is 1-0, scoring 42 and allowing 7 points per game (+35 per game). Vanderbilt is 1-0, scoring 28 and allowing 9 points per game (+19 per game).
Expect Delaware to find it hard going: Vanderbilt's strong defense (22nd) outranks Delaware's middle-of-the-pack offense (77th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25.5 points against an average defense). Vanderbilt's strong offense (26th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Delaware's struggling defense (122nd); that mismatch is where most of Vanderbilt's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Delaware by 8 and Vanderbilt by 37 about 80% of the time.
Vanderbilt gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Vanderbilt by about 12.8. The game is on SEC Network.
Result: Delaware 26, Vanderbilt 35. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.9 points and the total by 3.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Delaware / Vanderbilt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Vanderbilt -21.25 → Vanderbilt -20.75 | 54.5 | +825 / -1575 |
| DraftKings | Vanderbilt -21.5 → Vanderbilt -20.5 | 55.5 → 54.5 | +800 / -1350 |
| Bovada | Vanderbilt -21 | 53.5 → 54.5 | +850 / -1800 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Vanderbilt win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Vanderbilt -15 | 57.9 | 84% |
| Market consensus | Vanderbilt -21 | 54.5 | 90% |
| Blended projection | Vanderbilt -20 | 55.1 | 91% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Vanderbilt win probability
- model 84% · market (no-vig) 90% · difference -6 pts
- Margin
- model Vanderbilt -14.9 · market Vanderbilt -20.75 · difference -5.8 pts (Vanderbilt view)
- Total
- model 57.9 · market 54.5 · difference +3.4
Model margin is 5.8 pts more toward Delaware than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Delaware 21.5, Vanderbilt 36.4 | Vanderbilt 84%right winner | 5.9 | 3.1 |
| New formula | Delaware 16.1, Vanderbilt 41.9 | Vanderbilt 94%right winner | 16.7 | 3.0 |
Final: Delaware 26, Vanderbilt 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Delaware vs Vanderbilt: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Delaware | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.0#57 | 38.5#8 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.0#116 | 22.8#47 |
| Yards per play | 5.95#65 | 7.67#1 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.33#117 | 5.75#62 |
| Rushing yards per game | 129.3#117 | 184.2#48 |
| Net passing yards per game | 298.5#8 | 287.2#10 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 172.0#83 | 128.3#19 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 248.5#118 | 238.5#105 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08#78 | 0.77#24 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.15#60 | 1.00#71 |
| Sacks per game | 1.92#74 | 2.31#39 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.08#90 | 1.85#79 |
| Stat | Delaware | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#78 | +0.30#1 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.09#116 | +0.07#102 |
| Success rate | 42.5%#66 | 52.1%#1 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.0%#90 | 41.5%#65 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4%#98 | 16.9%#5 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.8%#81 | 12.0%#59 |
| Havoc rate | 11.4%#103 | 12.4%#69 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.7%#60 | 11.9%#67 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.70#97 | 5.28#1 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.00#86 | 3.83#65 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#80 | own 30#61 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#99 | own 29#58 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.9#13 | 61.5#120 |
| Stat | Delaware | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04#105 | +0.21#5 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06#56 | +0.38#1 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#73 | -0.05#34 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17#122 | +0.16#120 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.1%#69 | 49.9%#10 |
| Passing success rate | 43.3%#45 | 54.1%#3 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.3%#104 | 17.5%#53 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.6%#100 | 48.7%#1 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.4%#126 | 30.1%#78 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.4%#44 | 52.6%#6 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.0%#86 | 45.2%#115 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 61.2%#68 | 75.0%#5 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.9%#52 | 60.0%#68 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Delaware schedule · Vanderbilt schedule · all Week 2 projections
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