Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Vanderbilt 50.6, Austin Peay 15.2 at FirstBank Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Vanderbilt wins about 99% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 35.4 points and 65.8 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
Austin Peay is 1-0, scoring 35 and allowing 17 points per game (+18 per game). Vanderbilt has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Austin Peay plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Vanderbilt's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Vanderbilt by 13 and Vanderbilt by 58 about 80% of the time.
Vanderbilt gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Vanderbilt by about 33.3. The game is on SECN+.
Result: Austin Peay 9, Vanderbilt 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 16.4 points and the total by 28.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Austin Peay / Vanderbilt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Vanderbilt -29.75 → Vanderbilt -29.25 | 61 → 58.25 | +1662.5 / -6250 |
| DraftKings | Vanderbilt -30.5 → Vanderbilt -29.5 | 61.5 → 57.5 | +2000 / -6500 |
| Bovada | Vanderbilt -29 | 60.5 → 59 | +1325 / -6000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Vanderbilt win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Vanderbilt -35.5 | 65.8 | 99% |
| Market consensus | Vanderbilt -29.5 | 58.3 | 94% |
| Blended projection | Vanderbilt -30.5 | 58.8 | 98% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Vanderbilt win probability
- model 99% · market (no-vig) 94% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Vanderbilt -35.4 · market Vanderbilt -29.25 · difference +6.1 pts (Vanderbilt view)
- Total
- model 65.8 · market 58.25 · difference +7.5
Model margin is 6.1 pts more toward Vanderbilt than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Austin Peay 15.2, Vanderbilt 50.6 | Vanderbilt 99%right winner | 16.4 | 28.8 |
| New formula | Austin Peay 10.8, Vanderbilt 50.2 | Vanderbilt 99%right winner | 20.4 | 24.0 |
Final: Austin Peay 9, Vanderbilt 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Austin Peay vs Vanderbilt: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Austin Peay | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 35.1 | 38.5#8 |
| Points allowed per game | 27.3 | 22.8#47 |
| Yards per play | 6.90 | 7.67#1 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.58 | 5.75#62 |
| Rushing yards per game | 195.7 | 184.2#48 |
| Net passing yards per game | 260.6 | 287.2#10 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 142.2 | 128.3#19 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 234.3 | 238.5#105 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.83 | 0.77#24 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.00#71 |
| Sacks per game | 2.25 | 2.31#39 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.58 | 1.85#79 |
| Stat | Austin Peay | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12 | +0.30#1 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.01 | +0.07#102 |
| Success rate | 45.6% | 52.1%#1 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.7% | 41.5%#65 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.3% | 16.9%#5 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.3% | 12.0%#59 |
| Havoc rate | 12.0% | 12.4%#69 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.7% | 11.9%#67 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.77 | 5.28#1 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.74 | 3.83#65 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | own 30#61 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | own 29#58 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.2 | 61.5#120 |
| Stat | Austin Peay | Vanderbilt |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.21#5 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.14 | +0.38#1 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | -0.05#34 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03 | +0.16#120 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.1% | 49.9%#10 |
| Passing success rate | 46.0% | 54.1%#3 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.7% | 17.5%#53 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.1% | 48.7%#1 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.6% | 30.1%#78 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.1% | 52.6%#6 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.0% | 45.2%#115 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.3% | 75.0%#5 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.7% | 60.0%#68 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Austin Peay schedule · Vanderbilt schedule · all Week 1 projections
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