2026 schedule
Austin Peay Governors
2026 season so far
Austin Peay is 7-2 against the 75th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.9 and allowing 18.7 points per game (+15.2 per game).
Austin Peay plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Eastern Kentucky in Week 10. We project Austin Peay 34, Eastern Kentucky 17 — Austin Peay wins 86% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Gardner-Webb Runnin' Bulldogs
0-1 · SOS #54
Win 35-17
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Austin Peay by 8.3
Total 62.5
DraftKings
APSU -14.5
Total 59.5
Final Austin Peay by 18. Austin Peay beat the spread. 52 points — under the 59.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Austin Peay -14.5 · O/U 59.5 · model vs market -6.2 pts (Austin Peay view)
ESPN+ Fortera StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missedPattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: hit · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9 - at
Vanderbilt Commodores
1-0 · SOS #16
Loss 9-28
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Vanderbilt by 35.4
Total 65.8
DraftKings
VAN -29.5
Total 57.5
Final Vanderbilt by 19. Austin Peay beat the spread. 37 points — under the 57.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Vanderbilt -29.25 (open Vanderbilt -29.75) · O/U 58.25 (open 61) · ML +1662.5 / -6250 · Vanderbilt 94% no-vig · model vs market +6.2 pts, +5 pct pts (Vanderbilt view)
SECN+ FirstBank StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missed - vs
Morehead State Eagles
1-2 · SOS #165
Win 63-7
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Austin Peay by 13
Total 60
DraftKings
APSU -36.5
Total 62.5
Final Austin Peay by 56. Austin Peay beat the spread. 70 points — over the 62.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Austin Peay -36.5 (open Austin Peay -34.5) · O/U 62.5 · model vs market -23.5 pts (Austin Peay view)
ESPN+ Fortera StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - at
West Florida Argonauts
2-1 · SOS #79
Win 38-16
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Austin Peay by 4.5
Total 50.7
DraftKings
APSU -10.5
Total 55.5
Final Austin Peay by 22. Austin Peay beat the spread. 54 points — under the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Austin Peay -11 (open Austin Peay -9) · O/U 55.25 · ML -382 / +284 · West Florida 25% no-vig · model vs market +6.5 pts, +14 pct pts (West Florida view)
ESPN+ Pen-Air FieldPregame calls · how each did
- vs
UT Martin Skyhawks
1-4 · SOS #45
Win 35-12
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Austin Peay by 19.2
Total 56
DraftKings
APSU -15.5
Total 53.5
Final Austin Peay by 23. Austin Peay beat the spread. 47 points — under the 53.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Austin Peay -15.5 (open Austin Peay -14.5) · O/U 53.5 (open 51.5) · ML +553 / -900 · Austin Peay 85% no-vig · model vs market +3.7 pts, +4 pct pts (Austin Peay view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 81°F, Wind 6 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCKV)ESPN+ Fortera StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: hit - vs
New Haven Chargers
1-5 · SOS #74
Win 42-17
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Austin Peay by 25.3
Total 54.1
DraftKings
APSU -35.5
Total 50.5
Final Austin Peay by 25. New Haven beat the spread. 59 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Austin Peay -35.5 · O/U 50.5 · model vs market -10.2 pts (Austin Peay view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 5 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCKV)ESPN+ Fortera StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - vs
Tarleton State Texans
6-0 · SOS #96
Loss 32-40
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Tarleton State by 2.3
Total 62.9
DraftKings
APSU -2.5
Total 57.5
Final Tarleton State by 8. Tarleton State beat the spread. 72 points — over the 57.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Austin Peay -2.5 (open Austin Peay -1.5) · O/U 57.5 (open 62.5) · ML +111 / -138 · Austin Peay 55% no-vig · model vs market -4.8 pts, -11 pct pts (Austin Peay view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 63°F, Wind 10 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCKV)ESPN+ Fortera StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hitPattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: missed · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9 - at
West Georgia Wolves
1-6 · SOS #29
Win 24-10
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Austin Peay by 11.2
Total 56.4
DraftKings
APSU -19.5
Total 53.5
Final Austin Peay by 14. West Georgia beat the spread. 34 points — under the 53.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Austin Peay -19.5 (open Austin Peay -21) · O/U 53.5 (open 55.5) · ML -1680 / +810 · West Georgia 10% no-vig · model vs market +8.3 pts, +13 pct pts (West Georgia view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 62°F, Wind 15 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCTJ)ESPN+ University Stadium (GA)Pregame calls · how each did
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: missedBounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: hit (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last gameHigh-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on) - at
North Alabama Lions
4-4 · SOS #49
Win 27-21
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Austin Peay by 7.6
Total 53.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Austin Peay by 6. 48 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 59°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMSL)ESPN+ Braly StadiumPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Eastern Kentucky Colonels
3-5 · SOS #36
Sat, Nov 7, 10:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 34-17 · 86%
Our number
Austin Peay by 17
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Fortera StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Abilene Christian Wildcats
4-4 · SOS #6
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 30-24 · 66%
Our number
Austin Peay by 6
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Fortera StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games - at
Central Arkansas Bears
2-6 · SOS #28
Sat, Nov 21, 10:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 32-25 · 70%
Our number
Austin Peay by 7
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Estes Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Austin Peay Governors stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-10.9
Adj. offense
21.9
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
32.8
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 33.9 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 18.7 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.71 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.42 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 179.3 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 210.8 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 121.3 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 234.6 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.33 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.22 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.67 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.44 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.15 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.02 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 41.7% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 40.3% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 15.4% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 11.4% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 14.5% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 15.4% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.15 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.60 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 7 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 6 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 58.1 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.11 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.18 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.03 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.01 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 39.9% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 40.6% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 20.3% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 27.6% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 28.3% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 35.5% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 37.3% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 49.6% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 57.8% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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