Matchup analysis
Our model projects Austin Peay 32, Central Arkansas 25 at Estes Stadium in Week 12. That is a solid edge: Austin Peay wins about 70% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 7.9 points and 57.1 combined points.
Austin Peay is 7-2 against the 93rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.9 and allowing 18.7 points per game (+15.2 per game). Central Arkansas is 2-6 against the 41st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 25.1 and allowing 30.8 points per game (-5.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Austin Peay by 30 and Central Arkansas by 15 about 80% of the time.
Central Arkansas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Austin Peay is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Austin Peay vs Central Arkansas: stat comparison
| Stat | Austin Peay | Central Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.9 | 25.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.7 | 30.8 |
| Yards per play | 6.71 | 6.04 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.42 | 6.22 |
| Rushing yards per game | 179.3 | 220.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 210.8 | 175.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 121.3 | 158.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 234.6 | 218.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.22 | 1.38 |
| Sacks per game | 2.67 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.44 | 1.63 |
| Stat | Austin Peay | Central Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.15 | +0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.11 |
| Success rate | 41.7% | 44.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.3% | 45.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.4% | 12.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.4% | 13.2% |
| Havoc rate | 14.5% | 13.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.4% | 13.1% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.15 | 3.60 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 6 | opp 8 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 58.1 | 65.5 |
| Stat | Austin Peay | Central Arkansas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11 | +0.17 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.18 | +0.01 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.03 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.12 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.9% | 47.9% |
| Passing success rate | 40.6% | 39.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.3% | 15.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.6% | 35.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.3% | 34.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 35.5% | 41.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 37.3% | 47.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.6% | 65.2% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.8% | 46.0% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Austin Peay schedule · Central Arkansas schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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