Matchup analysis
Our model projects Austin Peay 30, Abilene Christian 24 at Fortera Stadium in Week 11. That is a lean: Austin Peay wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.2 points and 54.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Abilene Christian is 4-4 against the 12th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.9 and allowing 25.3 points per game (-3.4 per game). Austin Peay is 7-2 against the 93rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.9 and allowing 18.7 points per game (+15.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Abilene Christian by 16 and Austin Peay by 29 about 80% of the time.
Austin Peay gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Austin Peay by about 4.1. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Abilene Christian vs Austin Peay: stat comparison
| Stat | Abilene Christian | Austin Peay |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.9 | 33.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3 | 18.7 |
| Yards per play | 5.55 | 6.71 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.09 | 5.42 |
| Rushing yards per game | 155.0 | 179.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 181.9 | 210.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 180.1 | 121.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 201.5 | 234.6 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.88 | 0.33 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50 | 1.22 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 2.67 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.50 | 2.44 |
| Stat | Abilene Christian | Austin Peay |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.15 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.02 |
| Success rate | 45.2% | 41.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.7% | 40.3% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.2% | 15.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.8% | 11.4% |
| Havoc rate | 11.1% | 14.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 15.6% | 15.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.68 | 3.15 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.10 | 3.60 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 7 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 6 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.8 | 58.1 |
| Stat | Abilene Christian | Austin Peay |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.16 | +0.18 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.13 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.01 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.6% | 39.9% |
| Passing success rate | 43.4% | 40.6% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.2% | 20.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 33.9% | 27.6% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.9% | 28.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 45.5% | 35.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 33.7% | 37.3% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 9.6% | 49.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 15.9% | 57.8% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Abilene Christian schedule · Austin Peay schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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