Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Tarleton State 32.6, Austin Peay 30.3 at Fortera Stadium in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Tarleton State wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.3 points and 62.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
Tarleton State is 5-0, scoring 39.4 and allowing 21.6 points per game (+17.8 per game). Austin Peay is 5-1, scoring 37 and allowing 16.2 points per game (+20.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Tarleton State by 25 and Austin Peay by 20 about 80% of the time.
Austin Peay gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Tarleton State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Tarleton State 40, Austin Peay 32. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.7 points and the total by 9.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Tarleton State / Austin Peay) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Austin Peay -1.5 → Austin Peay -2.5 | 62.5 → 57.5 | +111 / -138 |
| DraftKings | Austin Peay -1.5 → Austin Peay -2.5 | 62.5 → 57.5 | +111 / -138 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Austin Peay win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Tarleton State -2.5 | 62.8 | 44% |
| Market consensus | Austin Peay -2.5 | 57.5 | 55% |
| Blended projection | Austin Peay -1.5 | 58.0 | 55% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Austin Peay win probability
- model 44% · market (no-vig) 55% · difference -11 pts
- Margin
- model Tarleton State -2.3 · market Austin Peay -2.5 · difference -4.8 pts (Austin Peay view)
- Total
- model 62.8 · market 57.5 · difference +5.3
Model margin is 4.8 pts more toward Tarleton State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Tarleton State 32.6, Austin Peay 30.3 | Tarleton State 56%right winner | 5.7 | 9.2 |
| New formula | Tarleton State 32.1, Austin Peay 29.2 | Tarleton State 58%right winner | 5.1 | 10.7 |
Final: Tarleton State 40, Austin Peay 32. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Tarleton State vs Austin Peay: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Tarleton State | Austin Peay |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 42.4 | 35.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.6 | 27.3 |
| Yards per play | 6.85 | 6.90 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.78 | 5.58 |
| Rushing yards per game | 209.4 | 195.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 259.2 | 260.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 183.7 | 142.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 176.1 | 234.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.57 | 0.83 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.21 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 2.29 | 2.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.93 | 1.58 |
| Stat | Tarleton State | Austin Peay |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19 | +0.12 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06 | -0.01 |
| Success rate | 45.6% | 45.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.0% | 42.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 15.1% | 14.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.1% | 11.3% |
| Havoc rate | 15.1% | 12.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.8% | 10.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.19 | 3.77 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.55 | 3.74 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.4 | 66.2 |
| Stat | Tarleton State | Austin Peay |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.07 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.29 | +0.14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.05 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.07 | -0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.8% | 45.1% |
| Passing success rate | 46.1% | 46.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.4% | 17.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.3% | 38.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.0% | 28.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.7% | 46.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.1% | 38.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 67.4% | 57.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 35.8% | 62.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Tarleton State schedule · Austin Peay schedule · all Week 6 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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