Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Austin Peay 36.5, Morehead State 23.5 at Fortera Stadium in Week 2. That is a solid edge: Austin Peay wins about 80% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13 points and 59.9 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Morehead State is 1-1, scoring 57.5 and allowing 33 points per game (+24.5 per game). Austin Peay is 1-1, scoring 22 and allowing 22.5 points per game (-0.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Morehead State by 10 and Austin Peay by 36 about 80% of the time.
Austin Peay gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Austin Peay by about 10.9. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Morehead State 7, Austin Peay 63. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 43 points and the total by 10.1.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Morehead State / Austin Peay) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Austin Peay -34.5 → Austin Peay -36.5 | 62.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Austin Peay -34.5 → Austin Peay -36.5 | 62.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Austin Peay win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Austin Peay -13 | 59.9 | 80% |
| Market consensus | Austin Peay -36.5 | 62.5 | 99% |
| Blended projection | Austin Peay -33 | 62.2 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Austin Peay win probability
- model 80% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Austin Peay -13 · market Austin Peay -36.5 · difference -23.5 pts (Austin Peay view)
- Total
- model 59.9 · market 62.5 · difference -2.6
Model margin is 23.5 pts more toward Morehead State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Morehead State 23.5, Austin Peay 36.5 | Austin Peay 80%right winner | 43.0 | 10.1 |
| New formula | Morehead State 22.8, Austin Peay 37.7 | Austin Peay 83%right winner | 41.0 | 9.5 |
Final: Morehead State 7, Austin Peay 63. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Morehead State vs Austin Peay: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Morehead State | Austin Peay |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.2 | 35.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.8 | 27.3 |
| Yards per play | 5.78 | 6.90 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.39 | 5.58 |
| Rushing yards per game | 144.8 | 195.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 196.3 | 260.6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 232.8 | 142.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 183.9 | 234.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.25 | 0.83 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 2.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.83 | 1.58 |
| Stat | Morehead State | Austin Peay |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07 | +0.12 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12 | -0.01 |
| Success rate | 40.8% | 45.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 48.1% | 42.7% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.8% | 14.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.9% | 11.3% |
| Havoc rate | 11.7% | 12.0% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.2% | 10.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.90 | 3.77 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.66 | 3.74 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.0 | 66.2 |
| Stat | Morehead State | Austin Peay |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.19 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.07 | +0.14 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.19 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.02 | -0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.0% | 45.1% |
| Passing success rate | 47.9% | 46.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.1% | 17.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.3% | 38.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.1% | 28.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.8% | 46.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.2% | 38.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 47.9% | 57.3% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 62.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Morehead State schedule · Austin Peay schedule · all Week 2 projections
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