2026 schedule
Morehead State Eagles
2026 season so far
Morehead State is 2-6 against the 165th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28 and allowing 43.3 points per game (-15.3 per game).
Morehead State plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Drake in Week 9. We project Morehead State 24, Drake 35 — Morehead State wins 23% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Ohio Dominican Panthers
1-0 · SOS #179
Loss 40-42
Week 1
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 52.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Ohio Dominican by 2. 82 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Phil Simms StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hit - vs
Kentucky Christian Knights
No record · SOS #173
Win 75-24
Week 1
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 52.3
Book line
Not posted
Final Morehead State by 51. 99 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Phil Simms StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missed - at
Austin Peay Governors
2-1 · SOS #75
Loss 7-63
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Austin Peay by 13
Total 60
DraftKings
APSU -36.5
Total 62.5
Final Austin Peay by 56. Austin Peay beat the spread. 70 points — over the 62.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Austin Peay -36.5 (open Austin Peay -34.5) · O/U 62.5 · model vs market -23.5 pts (Austin Peay view)
ESPN+ Fortera StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - at
Western Illinois Leathernecks
2-2 · SOS #95
Loss 2-59
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Western Illinois by 10
Total 63.4
DraftKings
WIU -20.5
Total 61.5
Final Western Illinois by 57. Western Illinois beat the spread. 61 points — under the 61.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Western Illinois -20.5 (open Western Illinois -18.5) · O/U 61.5 (open 58.5) · ML +870 / -1900 · Western Illinois 90% no-vig · model vs market -10.5 pts, -16 pct pts (Western Illinois view)
ESPN+ Hanson FieldPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missed - vs
Valparaiso Beacons
2-3 · SOS #160
Loss 3-37
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Valparaiso by 1.7
Total 59.7
DraftKings
VAL -3.5
Total 52.5
Final Valparaiso by 34. Valparaiso beat the spread. 40 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Valparaiso -3.5 (open Valparaiso -2.5) · O/U 52.5 (open 51.5) · ML -154 / +124 · Morehead State 42% no-vig · model vs market +1.8 pts, +3 pct pts (Morehead State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 69°F, Wind 11 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KFGX)ESPN+ Phil Simms StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - at
Dayton Flyers
4-1 · SOS #159
Loss 28-56
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Dayton by 21.7
Total 51.9
DraftKings
DAY -21.5
Total 54.5
Final Dayton by 28. Dayton beat the spread. 84 points — over the 54.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Dayton -21.5 (open Dayton -20.5) · O/U 54.5 · ML +1180 / -4000 · Dayton 93% no-vig · model vs market +0.2 pts, -0 pct pts (Dayton view)
Game-time weather: 67°F, Wind 6 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KFFO)YouTube Welcome StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - at
Davidson Wildcats
3-5 · SOS #171
Loss 31-34
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Morehead State by 2
Total 65
DraftKings
MORE -1.5
Total 57.5
Final Davidson by 3. Davidson beat the spread. 65 points — over the 57.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Morehead State -1.5 (open Davidson -1.5) · O/U 57.5 (open 56.5) · ML -116 / -107 · Davidson 49% no-vig · model vs market -0.5 pts, -4 pct pts (Davidson view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 60°F, Wind 8 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KRUQ)ESPN+ Richardson Stadium (Davidson, NC)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hitPattern · Watching Under · high total, close game: Record 30 hits, 30 misses (50% hit rate) over 60 graded gamesUnder · high total, close game: missed · Under · high total, close game → went under 26 of 38 since week 3 · base 54% - vs
Stetson Hatters
1-7 · SOS #110
Win 38-31
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Morehead State by 2.6
Total 63.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Morehead State by 7. 69 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Light rain, 70°F, Wind 5 mph SW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSYM)ESPN+ Phil Simms StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Drake Bulldogs
2-6 · SOS #112
Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 24-35 · 23%
Our number
Drake by 11
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly cloudy, 64°F, Wind 3 mph ESE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Phil Simms StadiumUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games - at
Marist Red Foxes
4-4 · SOS #154
Sat, Nov 7, 5:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 19-35 · 15%
Our number
Marist by 16
Total 54
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Tenney Stadium at Leonidoff FieldLow Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games - vs
Presbyterian Blue Hose
4-4 · SOS #145
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 26-36 · 26%
Our number
Presbyterian by 10
Total 62
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Phil Simms StadiumExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games - at
Butler Bulldogs
6-2 · SOS #111
Sat, Nov 21, 6:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 15-43 · 3%
Our number
Butler by 28
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Bud and Jackie Sellick BowlExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Morehead State Eagles stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-44.1
Adj. offense
6.8
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
50.9
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 28.0 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 43.3 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.90 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.92 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 128.8 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 254.0 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 201.6 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 270.5 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.63 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.88 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.13 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.38 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.03 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.23 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 40.4% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 47.7% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 13.0% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 15.8% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 11.3% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 18.7% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.62 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.72 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 0 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 0 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 64.9 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.10 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.13 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.24 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.22 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 42.9% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 42.4% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 23.9% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 32.0% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 32.4% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 39.3% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 45.0% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 45.3% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 57.6% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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