Matchup analysis
Our model projects Butler 43, Morehead State 15 at Bud and Jackie Sellick Bowl in Week 12. That is a heavy edge: Butler wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 27.8 points and 57.6 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Morehead State is 2-6 against the 165th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 28 and allowing 43.3 points per game (-15.3 per game). Butler is 6-2 against the 111th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.3 and allowing 21.5 points per game (+11.8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Butler by 5 and Butler by 50 about 80% of the time.
Butler gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Butler by about 25.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Morehead State vs Butler: stat comparison
| Stat | Morehead State | Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.0 | 33.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 43.3 | 21.5 |
| Yards per play | 5.90 | 6.19 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.92 | 5.68 |
| Rushing yards per game | 128.8 | 219.3 |
| Net passing yards per game | 254.0 | 151.1 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 201.6 | 111.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 270.5 | 237.9 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.63 | 0.57 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.88 | 1.57 |
| Sacks per game | 1.13 | 2.14 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.38 | 1.86 |
| Stat | Morehead State | Butler |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.10 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.23 | +0.04 |
| Success rate | 40.4% | 41.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 47.7% | 43.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.0% | 11.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.8% | 12.0% |
| Havoc rate | 11.3% | 14.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 18.7% | 15.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.62 | 3.72 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.72 | 3.08 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.9 | 59.9 |
| Stat | Morehead State | Butler |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10 | +0.11 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.13 | +0.08 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.24 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.22 | +0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.9% | 48.1% |
| Passing success rate | 42.4% | 38.1% |
| Run stuff rate | 23.9% | 18.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.0% | 26.3% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.4% | 34.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.3% | 46.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 45.0% | 43.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 45.3% | 57.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 57.6% | 50.9% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Morehead State schedule · Butler schedule · all Week 12 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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