2026 schedule
Butler Bulldogs
2026 season so far
Butler is 6-2 against the 111th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.3 and allowing 21.5 points per game (+11.8 per game).
Butler plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Presbyterian in Week 9. We project Butler 33, Presbyterian 23 — Butler wins 74% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Georgetown (KY) Tigers
No record · SOS #32
Win 27-23
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Butler by 3.9
Total 52.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Butler by 4. 50 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Bud and Jackie Sellick BowlPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - at
Montana State Bobcats
2-0 · SOS #55
Loss 24-51
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Montana State by 21.4
Total 54.2
DraftKings
MTST -45.5
Total 59.5
Final Montana State by 27. Butler beat the spread. 75 points — over the 59.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Montana State -45.5 · O/U 59.5 · model vs market -24.1 pts (Montana State view)
ESPN+ Bobcat Stadium (MT)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit - vs
Franklin Grizzlies
1-1 · SOS #31
Win 52-0
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Butler by 3.2
Total 52.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Butler by 52. 52 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Bud and Jackie Sellick BowlPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - vs
Chicago State Cougars
1-3 · SOS #134
Win 47-20
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Butler by 11.3
Total 59.3
DraftKings
BTLR -20.5
Total 54.5
Final Butler by 27. Butler beat the spread. 67 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Butler -20.5 (open Butler -19.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 53.5) · ML +820 / -1700 · Butler 90% no-vig · model vs market -9.2 pts, -13 pct pts (Butler view)
ESPN+ Bud and Jackie Sellick BowlPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - at
Valparaiso Beacons
1-3 · SOS #160
Win 33-28
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Butler by 9.2
Total 57.2
DraftKings
BTLR -6.5
Total 52.5
Final Butler by 5. Valparaiso beat the spread. 61 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Butler -6.5 (open Butler -8.5) · O/U 52.5 · ML -244 / +191 · Valparaiso 33% no-vig · model vs market -2.7 pts, -5 pct pts (Valparaiso view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind 6 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KVPZ)ESPN+ Brown FieldPregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed - vs
San Diego Toreros
2-4 · SOS #93
Win 41-10
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Butler by 10.8
Total 61.2
DraftKings
USD -1.5
Total 61.5
Final Butler by 31. Butler beat the spread. 51 points — under the 61.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: San Diego -1.5 (open San Diego -2.5) · O/U 61.5 (open 57.5) · ML -154 / +123 · Butler 43% no-vig · model vs market +12.3 pts, +34 pct pts (Butler view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 7 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KEYE)ESPN+ Bud and Jackie Sellick BowlPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - vs
Dayton Flyers
5-1 · SOS #159
Loss 9-19
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Butler by 6.2
Total 53.8
DraftKings
BTLR -5.5
Total 50.5
Final Dayton by 10. Dayton beat the spread. 28 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Butler -5.5 · O/U 50.5 (open 48.5) · ML +174 / -221 · Butler 65% no-vig · model vs market +0.7 pts, +0 pct pts (Butler view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 52°F, Wind 9 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KEYE)ESPN+ Bud and Jackie Sellick BowlPregame calls · how each did
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: missed (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last gameRising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: hit (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open - at
Drake Bulldogs
2-6 · SOS #112
Win 33-21
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Butler by 6.8
Total 53.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Butler by 12. 54 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 75°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDSM)ESPN+ Drake Stadium (IA)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - at
Presbyterian Blue Hose
4-4 · SOS #145
Sat, Oct 31, 5:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 33-23 · 74%
Our number
Butler by 10
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Cloudy, 68°F, Wind 9 mph ENE, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Bailey Memorial StadiumBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games - vs
St. Thomas Tommies
6-2 · SOS #127
Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 29-28 · 53%
Our number
Butler by 1
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Bud and Jackie Sellick BowlExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesHigh Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded games - at
Marist Red Foxes
4-4 · SOS #154
Sat, Nov 14, 5:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 29-20 · 71%
Our number
Butler by 9
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Tenney Stadium at Leonidoff Field - vs
Morehead State Eagles
2-6 · SOS #165
Sat, Nov 21, 6:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 43-15 · 97%
Our number
Butler by 28
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Bud and Jackie Sellick BowlExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games
Times shown in your local time
Butler Bulldogs stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-15.7
Adj. offense
18.6
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
34.3
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 33.3 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 21.5 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.19 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.68 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 219.3 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 151.1 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 111.3 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 237.9 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.57 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.57 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.14 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.86 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.10 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.04 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 41.6% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 43.2% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 11.6% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.0% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 14.5% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 15.4% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.72 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.08 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 0 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 0 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 59.9 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.11 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.08 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.04 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.04 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 48.1% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 38.1% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 18.9% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 26.3% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 34.6% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 46.2% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 43.0% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 57.6% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 50.9% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.