Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Montana State 37.8, Butler 16.4 at Bobcat Stadium (MT) in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Montana State wins about 92% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 21.4 points and 54.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Butler is 1-0, scoring 27 and allowing 23 points per game (+4 per game). Montana State is 1-0, scoring 54 and allowing 0 points per game (+54 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Butler by 1 and Montana State by 44 about 80% of the time.
Montana State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Montana State by about 19.3. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Butler 24, Montana State 51. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 5.6 points and the total by 20.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Butler / Montana State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Montana State -45.5 | 59.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Montana State -45.5 | 59.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Montana State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Montana State -21.5 | 54.2 | 92% |
| Market consensus | Montana State -45.5 | 59.5 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Montana State -42 | 59.3 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Montana State win probability
- model 92% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Montana State -21.4 · market Montana State -45.5 · difference -24.1 pts (Montana State view)
- Total
- model 54.2 · market 59.5 · difference -5.3
Model margin is 24.1 pts more toward Butler than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Butler 16.4, Montana State 37.8 | Montana State 92%right winner | 5.6 | 20.8 |
| New formula | Butler 9.2, Montana State 46.6 | Montana State 99%right winner | 10.3 | 19.2 |
Final: Butler 24, Montana State 51. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Butler vs Montana State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Butler | Montana State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 22.8 | 37.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.3 | 19.0 |
| Yards per play | 5.37 | 7.07 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.95 | 5.48 |
| Rushing yards per game | 179.4 | 243.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 166.5 | 214.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 153.8 | 137.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 187.8 | 241.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.45 | 0.47 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.55 | 1.40 |
| Sacks per game | 2.36 | 1.73 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.18 | 1.93 |
| Stat | Butler | Montana State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.19 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08 | +0.01 |
| Success rate | 41.5% | 51.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.6% | 39.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.4% | 14.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.7% | 10.1% |
| Havoc rate | 13.4% | 11.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.6% | 12.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 1.12 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 1.65 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 4 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.5 | 64.7 |
| Stat | Butler | Montana State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.06 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03 | +0.28 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.18 | -0.06 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.9% | 51.2% |
| Passing success rate | 41.1% | 52.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.2% | 15.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.1% | 38.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.4% | 22.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 44.2% | 48.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.7% | 38.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 18.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 28.2% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Butler schedule · Montana State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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