2026 schedule
Montana State Bobcats
2026 season so far
Montana State is 7-1 against the 55th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 39.5 and allowing 20.4 points per game (+19.1 per game).
Montana State plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Cal Poly in Week 9. We project Montana State 43, Cal Poly 15 — Montana State wins 97% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 games- at
Utah Tech Trailblazers
0-1 · SOS #16
Win 54-0
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Montana State by 17.3
Total 50.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Montana State by 54. 54 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Greater Zion Stadium - vs
Butler Bulldogs
1-1 · SOS #112
Win 51-24
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Montana State by 21.4
Total 54.2
Book line
Not posted
Final Montana State by 27. 75 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Bobcat Stadium (MT) - at
Nevada Wolf Pack
1-1 · SOS #110
Win 20-7
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Nevada by 16
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
Final Montana State by 13. 27 points. No book line was saved for this game.
CW Mackay Stadium - vs
Central Connecticut Blue Devils
0-3 · SOS #82
Win 35-30
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Montana State by 23.2
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
Final Montana State by 5. 65 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Bobcat Stadium (MT) - vs
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
3-2 · SOS #18
Win 28-14
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Montana State by 22.3
Total 57.9
Book line
Not posted
Final Montana State by 14. 42 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 45°F, Wind 9 mph NW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBZN)ESPN2 Bobcat Stadium (MT) - at
Idaho Vandals
1-4 · SOS #6
Loss 34-35
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Montana State by 21
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
Final Idaho by 1. 69 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Indoors (dome).ESPN Kibbie Dome - at
Eastern Washington Eagles
2-6 · SOS #11
Win 56-20
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Montana State by 20.8
Total 59.8
Book line
Not posted
Final Montana State by 36. 76 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: 62°F, Wind 6 mph W.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (TWRW1)ESPN+ Roos Field - vs
Weber State Wildcats
5-4 · SOS #69
Win 38-33
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Montana State by 27
Total 61.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Montana State by 5. 71 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 34°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBZN)ESPN+ Bobcat Stadium (MT) - vs
Cal Poly Mustangs
4-5 · SOS #92
Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 43-15 · 97%
Our number
Montana State by 28
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance light rain, 44°F, Wind 1 mph W, 24% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Bobcat Stadium (MT) - at
Idaho State Bengals
5-3 · SOS #124
Sat, Nov 7, 11:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 34-22 · 79%
Our number
Montana State by 12
Total 56
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ ICCU Dome - at
Northern Colorado Bears
3-6 · SOS #64
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 38-12 · 96%
Our number
Montana State by 26
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Nottingham Field - vs
Montana Grizzlies
5-3 · SOS #50
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 38-25 · 80%
Our number
Montana State by 13
Total 63
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Bobcat Stadium (MT)
Times shown in your local time
Montana State Bobcats stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+0.5
Adj. offense
28.0
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
27.5
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 39.5 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 20.4 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.97 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.57 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 209.1 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 230.8 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 141.0 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 235.0 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.38 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.50 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.00 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.13 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.17 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.03 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 48.6% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 41.4% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 13.7% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 11.0% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 12.6% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 9.7% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.01 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 2.22 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 9 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 9 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 63.1 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.15 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.19 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.00 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.03 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 52.5% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 52.5% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 14.7% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 34.4% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 24.5% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 45.9% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 37.3% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 55.2% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 48.5% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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