Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Montana State 40.1, Northern Arizona 17.8 at Bobcat Stadium (MT) in Week 4. That is a heavy edge: Montana State wins about 93% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 22.3 points and 57.8 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Northern Arizona is 3-1, scoring 28.5 and allowing 28.3 points per game (+0.2 per game). Montana State is 4-0, scoring 40 and allowing 15.3 points per game (+24.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between a tie and Montana State by 45 about 80% of the time.
Montana State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Montana State by about 20.2. The game is on ESPN2.
Result: Northern Arizona 14, Montana State 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 8.3 points and the total by 15.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Northern Arizona / Montana State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Montana State -19.5 → Montana State -20.5 | 56.5 → 57.5 | +910 / -2100 |
| DraftKings | Montana State -19.5 → Montana State -20.5 | 56.5 → 57.5 | +910 / -2100 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Montana State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Montana State -22.5 | 57.8 | 93% |
| Market consensus | Montana State -20.5 | 57.5 | 91% |
| Blended projection | Montana State -21 | 57.7 | 92% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Montana State win probability
- model 93% · market (no-vig) 91% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Montana State -22.3 · market Montana State -20.5 · difference +1.8 pts (Montana State view)
- Total
- model 57.8 · market 57.5 · difference +0.3
Model margin is 1.8 pts more toward Montana State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northern Arizona 17.8, Montana State 40.1 | Montana State 93%right winner | 8.3 | 15.8 |
| New formula | Northern Arizona 17.0, Montana State 40.4 | Montana State 94%right winner | 9.4 | 15.4 |
Final: Northern Arizona 14, Montana State 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northern Arizona vs Montana State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Northern Arizona | Montana State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.7 | 37.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.3 | 19.0 |
| Yards per play | 6.08 | 7.07 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.81 | 5.48 |
| Rushing yards per game | 155.8 | 243.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 256.6 | 214.0 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 172.4 | 137.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 251.3 | 241.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.82 | 0.47 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.18 | 1.40 |
| Sacks per game | 1.45 | 1.73 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.73 | 1.93 |
| Stat | Northern Arizona | Montana State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.19 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.01 |
| Success rate | 41.9% | 51.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 41.8% | 39.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.5% | 14.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 15.7% | 10.1% |
| Havoc rate | 10.9% | 11.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.4% | 12.2% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.97 | 1.12 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.39 | 1.65 |
| Average starting field position | opp 7 | opp 4 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 67.8 | 64.7 |
| Stat | Northern Arizona | Montana State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08 | +0.12 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.28 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.21 | +0.10 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01 | -0.06 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.1% | 51.2% |
| Passing success rate | 43.1% | 52.9% |
| Run stuff rate | 22.0% | 15.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.4% | 38.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.5% | 22.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 34.9% | 48.8% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.8% | 38.7% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.8% | 18.7% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.6% | 28.2% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Arizona schedule · Montana State schedule · all Week 4 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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