2026 schedule
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
2026 season so far
Northern Arizona is 6-2 against the 16th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 30.1 points per game (+1.5 per game).
Northern Arizona plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Southern Utah in Week 9. We project Northern Arizona 29, Southern Utah 32 — Northern Arizona wins 44% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Eastern Washington Eagles
0-1 · SOS #11
Win 34-27
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Northern Arizona by 5.6
Total 58.8
DraftKings
NAU -5.5
Total 55.5
Final Northern Arizona by 7. Northern Arizona beat the spread. 61 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Northern Arizona -5.5 (open Northern Arizona -3) · O/U 55.5 (open 56.5) · ML +189 / -242 · Northern Arizona 67% no-vig · model vs market +0.1 pts, -3 pct pts (Northern Arizona view)
ESPN+ J. Lawrence Walkup SkydomePregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - at
Arizona Wildcats
1-0 · SOS #78
Loss 7-35
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Arizona by 35.6
Total 57.8
DraftKings
ARIZ -33.5
Total 59.5
Final Arizona by 28. Northern Arizona beat the spread. 42 points — under the 59.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Arizona -32.5 (open Arizona -31.5) · O/U 59 (open 57.5) · ML +1800 / -8250 · Arizona 95% no-vig · model vs market +3.1 pts, +4 pct pts (Arizona view)
ESPN+ Casino Del Sol StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit - vs
Incarnate Word Cardinals
1-1 · SOS #34
Win 38-28
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Northern Arizona by 1.9
Total 55.9
DraftKings
NAU -4.5
Total 54.5
Final Northern Arizona by 10. Northern Arizona beat the spread. 66 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Northern Arizona -4.5 · O/U 54.5 · ML +148 / -186 · Northern Arizona 62% no-vig · model vs market -2.6 pts, -7 pct pts (Northern Arizona view)
ESPN+ J. Lawrence Walkup SkydomePregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missed - at
Utah Tech Trailblazers
0-4 · SOS #17
Win 35-23
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Northern Arizona by 6.2
Total 55.8
DraftKings
NAU -16.5
Total 51.5
Final Northern Arizona by 12. Utah Tech beat the spread. 58 points — over the 51.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Northern Arizona -16.5 (open Northern Arizona -21.5) · O/U 51.5 (open 53.5) · ML -1140 / +640 · Utah Tech 13% no-vig · model vs market +10.3 pts, +21 pct pts (Utah Tech view)
ESPN+ Greater Zion Stadium - at
Montana State Bobcats
5-0 · SOS #55
Loss 14-28
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Montana State by 22.3
Total 57.9
DraftKings
MTST -20.5
Total 57.5
Final Montana State by 14. Northern Arizona beat the spread. 42 points — under the 57.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Montana State -20.5 (open Montana State -19.5) · O/U 57.5 (open 56.5) · ML +910 / -2100 · Montana State 91% no-vig · model vs market +1.8 pts, +2 pct pts (Montana State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 45°F, Wind 9 mph NW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBZN)ESPN2 Bobcat Stadium (MT)Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: missed - at
Idaho State Bengals
4-1 · SOS #122
Win 38-31
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Idaho State by 8.9
Total 57.9
DraftKings
IDST -7.5
Total 55.5
Final Northern Arizona by 7. Northern Arizona beat the spread. 69 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Idaho State -7.5 (open Idaho State -6.5) · O/U 55.5 · ML +229 / -298 · Idaho State 71% no-vig · model vs market +1.4 pts, +1 pct pts (Idaho State view)
Indoors (dome).ESPN+ ICCU DomePregame calls · how each did
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: missed · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9 - vs
Montana Grizzlies
5-2 · SOS #50
Win 49-44
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Montana by 4.3
Total 60.3
DraftKings
MONT -9.5
Total 64.5
Final Northern Arizona by 5. Northern Arizona beat the spread. 93 points — over the 64.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Montana -9.5 · O/U 64.5 · ML -268 / +208 · Northern Arizona 31% no-vig · model vs market +5.2 pts, +8 pct pts (Northern Arizona view)
Indoors (dome).ESPN+ J. Lawrence Walkup SkydomePregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesPattern · Watching Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded gamesUnder · high total, close game, our total below the book: missed · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49% - vs
Portland State Vikings
2-5 · SOS #8
Win 38-25
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Northern Arizona by 18.5
Total 65.1
DraftKings
NAU -17.5
Total 63.5
Final Northern Arizona by 13. Portland State beat the spread. 63 points — under the 63.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Northern Arizona -17.5 · O/U 63.5 (open 61.5) · ML +660 / -1180 · Northern Arizona 88% no-vig · model vs market +1.0 pts, +1 pct pts (Northern Arizona view)
Indoors (dome).ESPN+ J. Lawrence Walkup SkydomePregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hitPattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: missed · Under · high total, night game → went under 17 of 21 since week 3 · base 53% - at
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
3-5 · SOS #38
Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 29-32 · 44%
Our number
Southern Utah by 3
Total 61
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Chance showers and thunderstorms, 54°F, Wind 7 mph S, 29% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Eccles ColiseumExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesHigh Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded games - at
Cal Poly Mustangs
4-5 · SOS #92
Sat, Nov 7, 10:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 33-27 · 65%
Our number
Northern Arizona by 6
Total 60
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - vs
Weber State Wildcats
5-4 · SOS #73
Sat, Nov 14, 9:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 35-28 · 67%
Our number
Northern Arizona by 7
Total 63
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ J. Lawrence Walkup SkydomeExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesHigh Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded games - vs
Northern Colorado Bears
3-6 · SOS #62
Sat, Nov 21, 9:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 32-19 · 80%
Our number
Northern Arizona by 13
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome
Times shown in your local time
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-16.9
Adj. offense
20.0
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
36.9
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 31.6 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 30.1 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.25 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.60 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 160.8 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 232.9 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 172.3 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 290.9 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.75 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.50 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.88 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.38 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.08 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.15 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 44.8% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 49.1% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 13.3% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 14.9% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 11.2% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 14.3% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.72 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.12 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 9 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 9 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 63.0 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.11 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.05 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.17 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.12 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 48.8% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 43.6% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 20.3% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 29.4% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 34.3% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 33.0% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 48.5% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 57.6% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 68.7% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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