Matchup analysis
Our model projects Northern Arizona 33, Cal Poly 27 at Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium in Week 10. That is a lean: Northern Arizona wins about 65% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 5.9 points and 59.5 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Northern Arizona is 6-2 against the 16th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 31.6 and allowing 30.1 points per game (+1.5 per game). Cal Poly is 4-5 against the 92nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.9 and allowing 31.4 points per game (-3.5 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northern Arizona by 28 and Cal Poly by 17 about 80% of the time.
Cal Poly gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Northern Arizona is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Northern Arizona vs Cal Poly: stat comparison
| Stat | Northern Arizona | Cal Poly |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.6 | 27.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.1 | 31.4 |
| Yards per play | 6.25 | 6.34 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.60 | 6.04 |
| Rushing yards per game | 160.8 | 175.0 |
| Net passing yards per game | 232.9 | 255.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 172.3 | 190.0 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 290.9 | 231.1 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75 | 1.22 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.50 | 1.00 |
| Sacks per game | 1.88 | 1.56 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.38 | 2.33 |
| Stat | Northern Arizona | Cal Poly |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08 | +0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.15 | +0.14 |
| Success rate | 44.8% | 42.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 49.1% | 44.8% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.3% | 12.7% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.9% | 12.8% |
| Havoc rate | 11.2% | 10.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.3% | 16.0% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.72 | 3.88 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.12 | 3.43 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 8 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 9 | opp 7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.0 | 67.9 |
| Stat | Northern Arizona | Cal Poly |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.07 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.17 | +0.13 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.12 | +0.15 |
| Rushing success rate | 48.8% | 47.8% |
| Passing success rate | 43.6% | 42.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.3% | 19.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.4% | 29.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.3% | 35.1% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.0% | 41.6% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 48.5% | 42.6% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.6% | 67.1% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 68.7% | 60.4% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Arizona schedule · Cal Poly schedule · all Week 10 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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