2026 schedule
Cal Poly Mustangs
2026 season so far
Cal Poly is 4-5 against the 92nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.9 and allowing 31.4 points per game (-3.5 per game).
Cal Poly plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Montana State in Week 9. We project Cal Poly 15, Montana State 43 — Cal Poly wins 3% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Idaho Vandals
0-1 · SOS #7
Win 38-34
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Cal Poly by 4.3
Total 53.7
DraftKings
IDHO -5.5
Total 53.5
Final Cal Poly by 4. Cal Poly beat the spread. 72 points — over the 53.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Idaho -5.5 (open Idaho -3.5) · O/U 53.5 (open 55.5) · ML -219 / +172 · Cal Poly 35% no-vig · model vs market +9.8 pts, +26 pct pts (Cal Poly view)
ESPN Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium - vs
Central Washington Wildcats
0-1 · SOS #136
Win 24-17
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Cal Poly by 10.3
Total 55.1
Book line
Not posted
Final Cal Poly by 7. 41 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium - at
San José State Spartans
2-1 · SOS #121
Loss 20-30
Week 2
Our number· pregame
San José State by 28.3
Total 55.7
DraftKings
SJSU -21.5
Total 58.5
Final San José State by 10. Cal Poly beat the spread. 50 points — under the 58.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: San José State -21.5 (open San José State -20.5) · O/U 58.5 (open 56.5) · ML +887.5 / -1650 · San José State 90% no-vig · model vs market +6.8 pts, +7 pct pts (San José State view)
MW+ CEFCU Stadium - vs
San Diego Toreros
1-2 · SOS #93
Loss 35-38
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Cal Poly by 14.9
Total 58.1
DraftKings
CP -17.5
Total 57.5
Final San Diego by 3. San Diego beat the spread. 73 points — over the 57.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Cal Poly -17.5 (open Cal Poly -18.5) · O/U 57.5 (open 56.5) · ML +515 / -810 · Cal Poly 85% no-vig · model vs market -2.6 pts, -1 pct pts (Cal Poly view)
ESPN+ Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium - at
Eastern Washington Eagles
1-4 · SOS #11
Win 31-27
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Eastern Washington by 5
Total 60.2
DraftKings
EWU -3.5
Total 58.5
Final Cal Poly by 4. Cal Poly beat the spread. 58 points — under the 58.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Eastern Washington -3.5 (open Eastern Washington -3) · O/U 58.5 (open 59.5) · ML +165 / -209 · Eastern Washington 64% no-vig · model vs market +1.5 pts, -1 pct pts (Eastern Washington view)
ESPN+ Roos Field - vs
Weber State Wildcats
3-3 · SOS #73
Loss 34-42
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Cal Poly by 7.7
Total 64.1
DraftKings
CP -6
Total 66.5
Final Weber State by 8. Weber State beat the spread. 76 points — over the 66.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Cal Poly -6 (open Cal Poly -4.5) · O/U 66.5 (open 65.5) · ML +186 / -238 · Cal Poly 67% no-vig · model vs market +1.7 pts, +3 pct pts (Cal Poly view)
ESPN+ Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium - at
Idaho State Bengals
4-2 · SOS #122
Win 25-24
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Idaho State by 12.3
Total 60.5
DraftKings
IDST -14.5
Total 63.5
Final Cal Poly by 1. Cal Poly beat the spread. 49 points — under the 63.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Idaho State -14.5 · O/U 63.5 · ML +408 / -594 · Idaho State 81% no-vig · model vs market -2.2 pts, -2 pct pts (Idaho State view)
ESPN+ ICCU Dome - at
Northern Colorado Bears
3-5 · SOS #62
Loss 18-28
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Cal Poly by 3.5
Total 51.5
DraftKings
CP -3
Total 52.5
Final Northern Colorado by 10. Northern Colorado beat the spread. 46 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Cal Poly -3 · O/U 52.5 (open 53.5) · ML -174 / +139 · Northern Colorado 40% no-vig · model vs market -0.5 pts, +1 pct pts (Northern Colorado view)
ESPN+ Nottingham Field - vs
Utah Tech Trailblazers
1-7 · SOS #17
Loss 26-43
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Cal Poly by 14.5
Total 54.5
Book line
Not posted
Final Utah Tech by 17. 69 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium - at
Montana State Bobcats
7-1 · SOS #55
Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 15-43 · 3%
Our number
Montana State by 28
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Bobcat Stadium (MT) - vs
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
6-2 · SOS #16
Sat, Nov 7, 10:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 27-33 · 35%
Our number
Northern Arizona by 6
Total 60
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium - at
UC Davis Aggies
5-3 · SOS #86
Sat, Nov 21, 9:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 24-35 · 23%
Our number
UC Davis by 11
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ UC Davis Health Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Cal Poly Mustangs stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-25.8
Adj. offense
15.0
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
40.8
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 27.9 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 31.4 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.34 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.04 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 175.0 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 255.7 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 190.0 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 231.1 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.22 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.00 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.56 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.33 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.04 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.14 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 42.5% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 44.8% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.7% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.8% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 10.9% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 16.0% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.88 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.43 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 8 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 7 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 67.9 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.01 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.07 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.13 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.15 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 47.8% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 42.2% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 19.4% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 29.1% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 35.1% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 41.6% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 42.6% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 67.1% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 60.4% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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