Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected San José State 42, Cal Poly 13.7 at CEFCU Stadium in Week 2. That is a heavy edge: San José State wins about 97% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 28.3 points and 55.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Cal Poly is 2-0, scoring 31 and allowing 25.5 points per game (+5.5 per game). San José State is 1-1, scoring 26.5 and allowing 31.5 points per game (-5 per game).
Cal Poly plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why San José State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between San José State by 6 and San José State by 51 about 80% of the time.
San José State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour San José State by about 26.2. The game is on MW+.
Result: Cal Poly 20, San José State 30. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 18.3 points and the total by 5.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Cal Poly / San José State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | San José State -20.5 → San José State -21.5 | 56.5 → 58.5 | +887.5 / -1650 |
| Bovada | San José State -20.5 → San José State -21.5 | 56.5 → 58.5 | +775 / -1500 |
| DraftKings | San José State -20.5 → San José State -21.5 | 56.5 → 58.5 | +1000 / -1800 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | San José State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | San José State -28.5 | 55.7 | 97% |
| Market consensus | San José State -21.5 | 58.5 | 90% |
| Blended projection | San José State -22.5 | 58.5 | 94% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- San José State win probability
- model 97% · market (no-vig) 90% · difference +7 pts
- Margin
- model San José State -28.3 · market San José State -21.5 · difference +6.8 pts (San José State view)
- Total
- model 55.7 · market 58.5 · difference -2.8
Model margin is 6.8 pts more toward San José State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Cal Poly 13.7, San José State 42.0 | San José State 97%right winner | 18.3 | 5.7 |
| New formula | Cal Poly 18.8, San José State 38.5 | San José State 89%right winner | 9.7 | 7.3 |
Final: Cal Poly 20, San José State 30. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Cal Poly vs San José State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Cal Poly | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 31.0 | 26.5#82 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.5 | 31.5#106 |
| Yards per play | 6.49 | 5.48#97 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.71 | 5.50#79 |
| Rushing yards per game | 190.5 | 122.0#107 |
| Net passing yards per game | 260.5 | 239.5#64 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 159.0 | 145.0#80 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 297.0 | 251.0#104 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00 | 1.00#104 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.00#79 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 1.00#113 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.50 | 1.00#75 |
| Stat | Cal Poly | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17 | -0.08#117 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.20 | +0.06#82 |
| Success rate | 47.5% | 32.7%#120 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.7% | 46.9%#111 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.2% | 13.3%#62 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.0% | 5.5%#11 |
| Havoc rate | 9.1% | 9.4%#117 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.5% | 15.9%#109 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 4.55#44 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 4.90#104 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 30#63 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 29#86 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.5 | 66.0#83 |
| Stat | Cal Poly | San José State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.04 | -0.32#131 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.33 | +0.13#66 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.07 | +0.10#106 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.34 | +0.02#61 |
| Rushing success rate | 49.3% | 28.8%#123 |
| Passing success rate | 46.9% | 36.1%#107 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.8% | 22.8%#117 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.8% | 25.5%#104 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 39.1% | 20.6%#26 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0% | 37.0%#94 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 53.3% | 41.4%#91 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 60.0%#84 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 87.5%#105 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Cal Poly schedule · San José State schedule · all Week 2 projections
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